Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.9% FCF Margin ($624.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling
Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, FOUR faces multiple-compression risk if 21.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($40.68) or 200D SMA ($46.30) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($38.90) toward Bear Floor ($30.34).
Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) surged +2.96% to $39.25, trading at 11% of its 52-week range ($34.56 – $76.09). Stretched risk/reward at 21x P/E (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Over the past six months, Shift4’s stock price fell to $38.75. Shareholders have lost 14.1% of their capital, which is disappointing considering the S&P 500 has climbed by 8.2%. This was partly due to its softer quarterl
Shift4 Payments (FOUR) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Truist Securities analyst Matthew Coad maintains Shift4 Payments (NYSE:FOUR) with a Hold and lowers the price target from $49 to $42.
CENTER VALLEY, Pa., October 22, 2026--Shift4 (NYSE: FOUR) today announced the date for the release of its third quarter 2026 financial results.
Shift4 Payments faces persistent FCF conversion headwinds, which may not improve. Click here to read why FOUR stock is a Hold.
Value investing has produced some of the world’s most famous investing billionaires, including Warren Buffett, David Einhorn, and Seth Klarman, who built their fortunes by purchasing wonderful businesses at reasonable pr
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +25.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOUR today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOUR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) ranks #506 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #356 by equity capitalization ($3.10B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MMS leads on earnings valuation at 10.3x trailing P/E, while TNET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. MMS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with FOUR at 56/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOUR
ACTIVE
Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 56/100 | 21.1x | — | 5.5% | +2.96% | $3.10B | Benchmark Subject |
| CBZ CBIZ Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 25.8x | 12.9% | 5.9% | +0.06% | $2.98B | /cbz-vs-four → |
| TNET TriNet Group Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | 18.9x | — | 85.0% | -9.53% | $2.92B | /tnet-vs-four → |
| MMS Maximus Inc. | B+ | 76/100 | 10.3x | 24.6% | 13.5% | +1.67% | $3.29B | /mms-vs-four → |
| PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | 33.0x | — | 34.1% | 0.00% | $2.41B | /payo-vs-four → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) reported GAAP revenue of $4.18B (+25.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.33B , and +63.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $147.0M, operating cash flow of $634.0M, and free cash flow of $624.0M (+26.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOUR closed FY2025 with $8.71B in total assets against $4.54B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.93, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $4.18B | $147.0M | $634.0M | $624.0M | $8.71B | $4.54B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $3.33B | $294.5M | $500.0M | $493.0M | $5.04B | $2.15B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.56B | $122.9M | $346.0M | $346.0M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: FOUR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $39.25 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $3.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FOUR ranks #506 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), FOUR carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.5%. By comparison, CBZ (CBIZ Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 25.8x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $2.98B) and TNET (TriNet Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $2.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MMS leads on earnings multiple (10.3x) while TNET leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
Per FOUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001794669), Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) generated $4.18B in revenue (+25.5% YoY), $147.0M in net income, and $624.0M in free cash flow against $8.71B in total assets and $4.54B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
FOUR last traded at $39.25 (+2.96% on volume of 1,554,325 shares), positioning the stock -3.52% below its 50-day simple moving average ($40.68) and -15.23% below its 200-day simple moving average ($46.30). Across its 52-week range of $34.56 to $76.09, FOUR sits at the 11.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($35.40 to $43.10).
Why FOUR Stock surged +2.96% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 21x P/E (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
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