Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / FOUR / earnings

CBZ (71) TNET (57) MMS (76) PAYO (66) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.8% Move

$39.25 +2.96% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.38

Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.10B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.38 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 14.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FOUR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FOUR SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.9% FCF Margin ($624.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$40.00-1.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$39.43-1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$38.79+1.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$39.25-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FOUR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, FOUR faces multiple-compression risk if 21.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($40.68) or 200D SMA ($46.30) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($38.90) toward Bear Floor ($30.34).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FOUR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FOUR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.8% Swing Band

±$3.85 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

FOUR Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 56/100

Trailing EPS: $1.86 • YoY Revenue Growth: 25.5%

Model Bullish Setup (56/100)Model Risk Weight (44/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$4.18B	$147.0M	$624.0M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$3.33B	$294.5M	$493.0M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$2.56B	$122.9M	$346.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FOUR)

✓Walkthrough of FOUR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FOUR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.36%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $39.43H $41.10L $38.51C $39.25VOL 2.67M

RES: $65.35SUP: $32.98SMA50: $40.68SMA200: $46.30

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FOUR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FOUR Butterfly Map → + Track FOUR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOUR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOUR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FOUR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FOUR)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #506 of 1011 ⚔️ CBZ vs FOUR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FOUR vs. CBZ, TNET, MMS, PAYO)

Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) ranks #506 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #356 by equity capitalization ($3.10B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MMS leads on earnings valuation at 10.3x trailing P/E, while TNET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. MMS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with FOUR at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FOUR ACTIVE Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A)	D+	56/100	21.1x	—	5.5%	+2.96%	$3.10B	Benchmark Subject
CBZ CBIZ Inc.	B-	71/100	25.8x	12.9%	5.9%	+0.06%	$2.98B	/cbz-vs-four →
TNET TriNet Group Inc.	D+	57/100	18.9x	—	85.0%	-9.53%	$2.92B	/tnet-vs-four →
MMS Maximus Inc.	B+	76/100	10.3x	24.6%	13.5%	+1.67%	$3.29B	/mms-vs-four →
PAYO Payoneer Global Inc.	C+	66/100	33.0x	—	34.1%	0.00%	$2.41B	/payo-vs-four →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001794669

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR) reported GAAP revenue of $4.18B (+25.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.33B , and +63.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $147.0M, operating cash flow of $634.0M, and free cash flow of $624.0M (+26.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOUR closed FY2025 with $8.71B in total assets against $4.54B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.93, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.18B	$147.0M	$634.0M	$624.0M	$8.71B	$4.54B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.33B	$294.5M	$500.0M	$493.0M	$5.04B	$2.15B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.56B	$122.9M	$346.0M	$346.0M	—	—

3. FOUR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FOUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: FOUR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $39.25 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $3.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FOUR ranks #506 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FOUR compare to CBZ and TNET in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), FOUR carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.5%. By comparison, CBZ (CBIZ Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 25.8x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $2.98B) and TNET (TriNet Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $2.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MMS leads on earnings multiple (10.3x) while TNET leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOUR?

Per FOUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001794669), Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) generated $4.18B in revenue (+25.5% YoY), $147.0M in net income, and $624.0M in free cash flow against $8.71B in total assets and $4.54B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FOUR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FOUR last traded at $39.25 (+2.96% on volume of 1,554,325 shares), positioning the stock -3.52% below its 50-day simple moving average ($40.68) and -15.23% below its 200-day simple moving average ($46.30). Across its 52-week range of $34.56 to $76.09, FOUR sits at the 11.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($35.40 to $43.10).

FOUR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is FOUR's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Shift4 Payments Inc. (Class A) (FOUR)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is FOUR stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±9.8% event move for FOUR, spanning a range between $35.4 and $43.1.

Direct Sub-Reports: FOUR RQD Cockpit FOUR 12M Forecast FOUR Earnings & Move FOUR Dividends & DRIP FOUR Insiders & 13F FOUR Whale Options FOUR Profit Sankey FOUR News & Why