CATALYSTBenzinga • 3d ago
Piper Sandler Maintains Neutral on Farmers National Banc, Raises Price Target to $17Piper Sandler analyst Adam Kroll maintains Farmers National Banc (NASDAQ:FMNB) with a Neutral and raises the price target from $16 to $17.
Why FMNB Stock advanced +1.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$15.77 +1.87% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.79
Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $934.3M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.79 (+0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 18.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FMNB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FMNB SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$14.97+2.2% Next Q
53
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$15.30+2.5% Next Q
56
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$15.69+0.5% Next Q
58
CurrentGrade C-$15.77+0.5% Hist 90D α
61
Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FMNB Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, FMNB faces multiple-compression risk if 17.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.48) or 200D SMA ($14.39) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($15.98) toward Bear Floor ($12.46).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FMNB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FMNB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FMNB Stock advanced +1.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) advanced +1.87% to $15.77, trading at 84% of its 52-week range ($12.12 – $16.46). Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 17x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 84% of its 52-week range ($12.12 – $16.46) with RSI-14 at 55.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4% around $15.77 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $52.2M annual free cash flow.
Live FMNB Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
Farmers National: Q3 Earnings SnapshotCANFIELD, Ohio (AP) — CANFIELD, Ohio (AP) — Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) on Wednesday reported third-quarter profit of $14.
MARKET WIREChartMill • 4d ago
Farmers Natl Banc Corp (NASDAQ:FMNB) Q3 Earnings Beat Offset by Revenue MissFarmers National Banc Q3 2026 adjusted EPS beat estimates despite a revenue miss, with Middlefield integration progress and a Q4 NIM outlook.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
Farmers National Banc (FMNB) Q3 Earnings Surpass EstimatesFarmers National (FMNB) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +14.63% and -6.75%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
Farmers National Banc Corp. Reports Results for Third Quarter of 2026CANFIELD, Ohio, October 28, 2026--Farmers National Banc Corp. ("Farmers" or the "Company") (NASDAQ: FMNB) today announced net income of $14.5 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2026 compared to
CATALYSTBenzinga • 4d ago
Farmers National Banc Q3 Adj. EPS $0.47 Beats $0.41 Estimate, Sales $65.869M Miss $70.750M EstimateFarmers National Banc (NASDAQ:FMNB) reported quarterly earnings of $0.47 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.41 by 14.63 percent. This is a 11.9 percent increase over earnings of $0.42 per share
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
First Financial Corp. (THFF) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat EstimatesFirst Financial Corp. (THFF) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +15.50% and +2.69%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
MARKET WIREYahoo • 11d ago
Old National Bancorp (ONB) Q3 Earnings Match EstimatesOld National Bancorp (ONB) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of 0.00% and -2.11%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 12d ago
Farmers National Banc: A Regional Bank To Keep An Eye OnFarmers National Banc stock trades at a low earnings multiple but rich TBV. Here's what investors need to know.
CATALYSTYahoo • 12d ago
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat EstimatesCommerce (CBSH) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +0.94% and +0.30%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FMNB Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FMNB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.08%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $15.87H $15.91L $15.61C $15.77VOL 349.5K
RES: $16.96SUP: $14.92SMA50: $15.48SMA200: $14.39
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FMNB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
10.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +3.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FMNB today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FMNB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FMNB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FMNB)
Financials Rank #467 of 1096
⚔️ FRBT vs FMNB Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FMNB vs. FRBT, THFF, TRST, HAFC)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) ranks #467 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #569 by equity capitalization ($934.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, THFF leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while THFF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and — gross margin. THFF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with FMNB at 61/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMNB
ACTIVE
Farmers National Banc Corp. | C- | 61/100 | 17.1x | — | 11.2% | +1.87% | $934.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| FRBT Forbright Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | +6.90% | $935.6M | /frbt-vs-fmnb → |
| THFF First Financial Corporation | B | 72/100 | 11.6x | — | 12.2% | +0.87% | $921.6M | /thff-vs-fmnb → |
| TRST TrustCo Bank Corp NY | D+ | 55/100 | 15.8x | — | 8.9% | +0.30% | $968.4M | /trst-vs-fmnb → |
| HAFC Hanmi Financial Corporation | C+ | 68/100 | 12.9x | — | 7.5% | +1.32% | $982.3M | /hafc-vs-fmnb → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000709337In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) reported GAAP revenue of $279.9M (+3.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $269.4M , and +9.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $54.6M, operating cash flow of $60.0M, and free cash flow of $52.2M (-5.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, FMNB closed FY2025 with $5.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $279.9M | $54.6M | $60.0M | $52.2M | $5.25B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $269.4M | $45.9M | $66.6M | $54.9M | $5.12B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $255.2M | $49.9M | $62.9M | $62.9M | — | — |
3. FMNB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FMNB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Farmers National Banc Corp. (NASDAQ: FMNB) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $15.77 (+1.87% 1D, market cap $934.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FMNB ranks #467 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FMNB compare to FRBT and THFF in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FMNB carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.2%. By comparison, FRBT (Forbright Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $935.6M) and THFF (First Financial Corporation) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 11.6x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $921.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, THFF leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while THFF leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FMNB?
Per FMNB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000709337), Farmers National Banc Corp. generated $279.9M in revenue (+3.9% YoY), $54.6M in net income, and $52.2M in free cash flow against $5.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FMNB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FMNB last traded at $15.77 (+1.87% on volume of 353,054 shares), positioning the stock +1.87% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.48) and +9.59% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.39). Across its 52-week range of $12.12 to $16.46, FMNB sits at the 84.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($15.14 to $16.40).
FMNB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FMNB stock moving today?
Why FMNB Stock advanced +1.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 17x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.