Stock Ratings / Financials / FFIN / forecast

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First Financial Bankshares Inc. (FFIN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$30.75 +1.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.77

First Financial Bankshares Inc. (FFIN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.41B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FFIN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, First Financial Bankshares Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $30.75 (+1.45% 1D, market cap $4.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FFIN ranks #507 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FFIN compare to SFBS and CATY in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FFIN carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.2%. By comparison, SFBS (ServisFirst Bancshares Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $4.43B) and CATY (Cathay General Bancorp) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $4.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FULT leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while SFBS leads on capital efficiency (15.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FFIN?

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Per FFIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000036029), First Financial Bankshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $253.6M in net income, and $299.4M in free cash flow against $15.45B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.77 (+0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 7.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FFIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FFIN SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.5% FCF Margin ($299.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$30.79-2.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$29.94+0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$30.00+2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$30.75-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FFIN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, FFIN faces multiple-compression risk if 17.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($31.95) or 200D SMA ($32.49) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.61) toward Bear Floor ($23.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FFIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FFIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FFIN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $30.75: 325.2 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $23.88

$7,766

$-2,234 (-22.3%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $30.61

$9,954

$-46 (-0.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $38.35

$12,472

+$2,472 (+24.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$32	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$36	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$27	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FFIN)

✓Walkthrough of FFIN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FFIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.27%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $30.31H $30.75L $30.31C $30.75VOL 698.9K

RES: $38.56SUP: $29.11SMA50: $31.95SMA200: $32.49

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FFIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FFIN Butterfly Map → + Track FFIN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

10.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FFIN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FFIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FFIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FFIN)

Financials Rank #507 of 1096 ⚔️ SFBS vs FFIN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FFIN vs. SFBS, CATY, UCB, FULT)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Financial Bankshares Inc. (FFIN) ranks #507 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #299 by equity capitalization ($4.41B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FULT leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while SFBS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.0% ROIC and — gross margin. UCB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with FFIN at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FFIN ACTIVE First Financial Bankshares Inc.	D+	57/100	17.4x	—	13.2%	+1.45%	$4.41B	Benchmark Subject
SFBS ServisFirst Bancshares Inc.	C	63/100	16.0x	—	15.0%	+1.66%	$4.43B	/sfbs-vs-ffin →
CATY Cathay General Bancorp	B-	71/100	13.8x	—	10.8%	+1.07%	$4.36B	/caty-vs-ffin →
UCB United Community Banks Inc.	B	74/100	13.7x	—	9.0%	+1.78%	$4.49B	/ucb-vs-ffin →
FULT Fulton Financial Corporation	C	64/100	11.5x	—	11.2%	+1.37%	$4.52B	/fult-vs-ffin →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000036029

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Financial Bankshares Inc. (FFIN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $253.6M, operating cash flow of $299.4M, and free cash flow of $299.4M (-3.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, FFIN closed FY2025 with $15.45B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$253.6M	$299.4M	$299.4M	$15.45B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$223.5M	$309.6M	$309.6M	$13.98B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$199.0M	$284.8M	$284.8M	—	—

3. FFIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FFIN compare to SFBS and CATY in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FFIN?

Where is FFIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FFIN last traded at $30.75 (+1.45% on volume of 698,942 shares), positioning the stock -3.76% below its 50-day simple moving average ($31.95) and -5.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($32.49). Across its 52-week range of $28.12 to $36.52, FFIN sits at the 31.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($29.30 to $32.20).

FFIN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FFIN's 12-month stock price target?

First Financial Bankshares Inc. (FFIN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $30.61 (-0.5% from $30.75), with a bull-case target of $38.35 and a bear-case floor of $23.88.