Stock Ratings / Financials / FDSB / forecast

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Fifth District Bancorp Inc. (FDSB) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$17.45 +0.51% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.43

Fifth District Bancorp Inc. (FDSB) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $91.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FDSB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FDSB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Fifth District Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: FDSB) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $17.45 (+0.51% 1D, market cap $91.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FDSB ranks #584 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FDSB compare to CPBI and BYFC in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), FDSB carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.2%. By comparison, CPBI (Central Plains Bancshares Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 21.5x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $86.0M) and BYFC (Broadway Financial Corporation (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.4%, cap $106.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SFBC leads on earnings multiple (16.1x) while SFBC leads on capital efficiency (6.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FDSB?

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Per FDSB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002012726), Fifth District Bancorp Inc. generated $605.0K in revenue (-2.3% YoY), $4.1M in net income, and $942.0K in free cash flow against $534.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.43 (-0.10%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 94.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FDSB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±2.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FDSB SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 78% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$17.32-2.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$16.88+3.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$17.44+0.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$17.45+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FDSB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, FDSB faces multiple-compression risk if 22.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.81) or 200D SMA ($16.23) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($17.53) toward Bear Floor ($13.67).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FDSB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FDSB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FDSB Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $17.45: 573.1 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.67

$7,834

$-2,166 (-21.7%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $17.53

$10,046

+$46 (+0.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $20.69

$11,857

+$1,857 (+18.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$18	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$19	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$16	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FDSB Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FDSB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.41%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $17.71H $17.71L $17.45C $17.45VOL 500

RES: $19.46SUP: $16.70SMA50: $17.81SMA200: $16.23

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FDSB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FDSB Butterfly Map → + Track FDSB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

16.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FDSB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FDSB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FDSB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FDSB)

Financials Rank #584 of 1096 ⚔️ CPBI vs FDSB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FDSB vs. CPBI, BYFC, PROV, SFBC)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fifth District Bancorp Inc. (FDSB) ranks #584 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #969 by equity capitalization ($91.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SFBC leads on earnings valuation at 16.1x trailing P/E, while SFBC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SFBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with FDSB at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FDSB ACTIVE Fifth District Bancorp Inc.	C-	59/100	22.3x	—	3.2%	+0.51%	$91.4M	Benchmark Subject
CPBI Central Plains Bancshares Inc.	C-	61/100	21.5x	—	4.6%	0.00%	$86.0M	/cpbi-vs-fdsb →
BYFC Broadway Financial Corporation (Class A)	E	31/100	—	—	-9.4%	+0.26%	$106.5M	/byfc-vs-fdsb →
PROV Provident Financial Holdings Inc.	C-	60/100	18.0x	—	4.9%	0.00%	$112.8M	/prov-vs-fdsb →
SFBC Sound Financial Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	16.1x	—	6.5%	0.00%	$115.6M	/sfbc-vs-fdsb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002012726

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Fifth District Bancorp Inc. (FDSB) reported GAAP revenue of $605.0K (-2.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $619.0K , and -1.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.1M, operating cash flow of $1.3M, and free cash flow of $942.0K (+160.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, FDSB closed FY2025 with $534.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$605.0K	$4.1M	$1.3M	$942.0K	$534.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$619.0K	-$1.1M	-$1.1M	-$1.6M	$527.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$614.0K	$797.0K	$796.0K	$796.0K	—	—

3. FDSB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FDSB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FDSB compare to CPBI and BYFC in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FDSB?

Where is FDSB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FDSB last traded at $17.45 (+0.51% on volume of 1,275 shares), positioning the stock -2.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.81) and +7.52% above its 200-day simple moving average ($16.23). Across its 52-week range of $13.00 to $18.69, FDSB sits at the 78.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±2.1% ($17.08 to $17.82).

FDSB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FDSB's 12-month stock price target?

Fifth District Bancorp Inc. (FDSB) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $17.53 (+0.5% from $17.45), with a bull-case target of $20.69 and a bear-case floor of $13.67.

Is FDSB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates FDSB C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 59/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: FDSB RQD Cockpit FDSB 12M Forecast FDSB Earnings & Move FDSB Dividends & DRIP FDSB Insiders & 13F FDSB Whale Options FDSB Profit Sankey FDSB News & Why