Stock Ratings / Health Care / EYE / earnings

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National Vision Holdings Inc. (EYE) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.7% Move

$16.64 +7.63% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.84

National Vision Holdings Inc. (EYE) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.32B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on EYE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EYE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, National Vision Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: EYE) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $16.64 (+7.63% 1D, market cap $1.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, EYE ranks #109 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EYE compare to STAA and WRBY in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Ophthalmic Goods), EYE carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 44.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.4%. By comparison, STAA (STAAR Surgical Company) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.27B) and WRBY (Warby Parker Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.7%, cap $3.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, EYE leads on earnings multiple (44.4x) while EYE leads on capital efficiency (4.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EYE?

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Per EYE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001710155), National Vision Holdings Inc. generated $1.99B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $29.6M in net income, and $73.5M in free cash flow against $1.98B in total assets and $223.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 44x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.84 (+1.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EYE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY EYE SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 12% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.7% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 3% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$16.68+4.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$17.43+7.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$18.67-10.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$16.64+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (76) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the EYE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, EYE faces multiple-compression risk if 44.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 44x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.04) or 200D SMA ($21.34) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($17.39) toward Bear Floor ($13.56).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EYE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “EYE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Jan 2, 2027 (~61 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.7% Swing Band

±$1.61 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

EYE Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $0.37 • YoY Revenue Growth: 9%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2026-01-03	$1.99B	$29.6M	$73.5M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-28	$1.82B	-$28.5M	$38.1M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-30	$1.76B	-$65.9M	$173.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating EYE & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on EYE
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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EYE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.34%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $16.95H $16.96L $16.22C $16.64VOL 2.42M

RES: $23.89SUP: $14.92SMA50: $17.04SMA200: $21.34

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EYE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EYE Butterfly Map → + Track EYE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

33.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EYE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EYE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EYE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EYE)

Health Care Rank #109 of 1016 ⚔️ STAA vs EYE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (EYE vs. STAA, WRBY, BLCO, RXST)

Industry: Ophthalmic Goods (8 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, National Vision Holdings Inc. (EYE) ranks #109 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #325 by equity capitalization ($1.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EYE leads on earnings valuation at 44.4x trailing P/E, while EYE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.4% ROIC and — gross margin. EYE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
EYE ACTIVE National Vision Holdings Inc.	C+	68/100	44.4x	—	4.4%	+7.63%	$1.32B	Benchmark Subject
STAA STAAR Surgical Company	D-	38/100	—	76.2%	-35.0%	+2.56%	$1.27B	/staa-vs-eye →
WRBY Warby Parker Inc.	D+	52/100	—	54.0%	-1.7%	+0.66%	$3.04B	/wrby-vs-eye →
BLCO Bausch + Lomb Corporation	D-	42/100	—	—	0.8%	0.00%	$7.29B	/blco-vs-eye →
RXST RxSight Inc.	D-	35/100	—	76.6%	-14.9%	+3.06%	$210.0M	/rxst-vs-eye →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0001710155

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), National Vision Holdings Inc. (EYE) reported GAAP revenue of $1.99B (+9.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.82B , and +13.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $29.6M, operating cash flow of $146.3M, and free cash flow of $73.5M (+92.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, EYE closed FY2025 with $1.98B in total assets against $223.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$1.99B	$29.6M	$146.3M	$73.5M	$1.98B	$223.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$1.82B	-$28.5M	$133.6M	$38.1M	$2.01B	$239.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$1.76B	-$65.9M	$173.0M	$173.0M	—	—

3. EYE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EYE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does EYE compare to STAA and WRBY in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EYE?

Where is EYE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EYE last traded at $16.64 (+7.63% on volume of 2,477,415 shares), positioning the stock -2.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.04) and -22.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($21.34). Across its 52-week range of $14.75 to $30.02, EYE sits at the 12.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($15.03 to $18.25).