Stock Ratings / Financials / EXOD / financials

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Exodus Movement Inc. (Class A) (EXOD) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$5.15 -8.69% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.06

Exodus Movement Inc. (Class A) (EXOD) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $170.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on EXOD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EXOD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Exodus Movement Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: EXOD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $5.15 (-8.69% 1D, market cap $170.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, EXOD ranks #1041 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EXOD compare to USBC and FOA in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), EXOD carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.6%. By comparison, USBC (USBC Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -18.4%, cap $169.2M) and FOA (Finance of America Companies Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 4.0x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $181.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOA leads on earnings multiple (4.0x) while NSLR leads on capital efficiency (23.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EXOD?

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Per EXOD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001821534), Exodus Movement Inc. (Class A) generated $121.6M in revenue (+4.5% YoY), -$11.4M in net income, and -$25.8M in free cash flow against $266.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.06 (-1.75%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EXOD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY EXOD SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (36% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 3% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$6.21-15.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$5.22+3.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$5.41-4.8% Next Q

Current

Grade E$5.15-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EXOD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EXOD currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.74) and Max Pain ($5.41) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $26.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EXOD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “EXOD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How EXOD Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $56.2M

FY24

Rev $116.3M

FY25

Rev $121.6M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$121.6M	52%	0%	-$11.4M	-$25.8M	-4.6%
FY 2024	$116.3M	52%	0%	$113.0M	-$12.3M	-4.6%
FY 2023	$56.2M	52%	0%	$12.8M	$692.0K	-4.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EXOD)

✓Walkthrough of EXOD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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EXOD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -32.15%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $5.46H $5.46L $5.10C $5.15VOL 47.5K

RES: $11.24SUP: $5.05SMA50: $6.74SMA200: $7.63

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EXOD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EXOD Butterfly Map → + Track EXOD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EXOD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EXOD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EXOD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EXOD)

Financials Rank #1041 of 1096 ⚔️ USBC vs EXOD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (EXOD vs. USBC, FOA, TONX, NSLR)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Exodus Movement Inc. (Class A) (EXOD) ranks #1041 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #911 by equity capitalization ($170.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FOA leads on earnings valuation at 4.0x trailing P/E, while NSLR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.8% ROIC and — gross margin. NSLR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with EXOD at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
EXOD ACTIVE Exodus Movement Inc. (Class A)	E	28/100	—	—	-4.6%	-8.69%	$170.3M	Benchmark Subject
USBC USBC Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-18.4%	-6.03%	$169.2M	/usbc-vs-exod →
FOA Finance of America Companies Inc. (Class A)	D+	54/100	4.0x	—	11.4%	+0.10%	$181.5M	/foa-vs-exod →
TONX TON Strategy Company	D-	35/100	—	—	-7.8%	-7.27%	$181.7M	/tonx-vs-exod →
NSLR Neostellar Capital Corp.	C-	61/100	—	—	23.8%	-0.84%	$158.3M	/nslr-vs-exod →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001821534

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Exodus Movement Inc. (Class A) (EXOD) reported GAAP revenue of $121.6M (+4.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $116.3M , and +116.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$11.4M, operating cash flow of -$25.6M, and free cash flow of -$25.8M (-109.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, EXOD closed FY2025 with $266.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$121.6M	-$11.4M	-$25.6M	-$25.8M	$266.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$116.3M	$113.0M	-$12.0M	-$12.3M	$288.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$56.2M	$12.8M	$692.0K	$692.0K	—	—

3. EXOD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EXOD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does EXOD compare to USBC and FOA in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EXOD?

Where is EXOD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EXOD last traded at $5.15 (-8.69% on volume of 47,608 shares), positioning the stock -23.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.74) and -32.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.63). Across its 52-week range of $4.57 to $25.48, EXOD sits at the 2.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($4.51 to $5.79).