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Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$19.32 +0.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.29

Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.09B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.29 (-0.16%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DNLI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY DNLI SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 10.87 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$19.45-9.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$17.61+4.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$18.41+4.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$19.32-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DNLI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While DNLI currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.64) and Max Pain ($20.29) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.67.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DNLI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “DNLI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

DNLI Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (DNLI)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on DNLI. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DNLI)

✓Walkthrough of DNLI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

DNLI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.21%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $19.25H $19.64L $18.64C $19.32VOL 1.31M

RES: $30.76SUP: $16.69SMA50: $20.64SMA200: $21.23

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DNLI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 DNLI Butterfly Map → + Track DNLI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DNLI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DNLI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DNLI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DNLI)

Health Care Rank #631 of 1016 ⚔️ BEAM vs DNLI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (DNLI vs. BEAM, ADMA, TARS, RXRX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) ranks #631 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #205 by equity capitalization ($3.09B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADMA leads on earnings valuation at 17.9x trailing P/E, while ADMA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 32.9% ROIC and 57.4% gross margin. ADMA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with DNLI at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
DNLI ACTIVE Denali Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.16%	$3.09B	Benchmark Subject
BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-32.1%	+0.21%	$2.98B	/beam-vs-dnli →
ADMA ADMA Biologics Inc	C+	67/100	17.9x	57.4%	32.9%	+4.17%	$2.63B	/adma-vs-dnli →
TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-24.1%	+2.98%	$3.66B	/tars-vs-dnli →
RXRX Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D-	43/100	—	5.0%	-35.0%	-2.53%	$2.53B	/rxrx-vs-dnli →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001714899

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$512.5M, operating cash flow of -$412.6M, and free cash flow of -$422.1M (-16.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, DNLI closed FY2025 with $1.14B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.87, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$512.5M	-$412.6M	-$422.1M	$1.14B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$422.8M	-$347.7M	-$363.6M	$1.37B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$330.5M	-$145.2M	-$358.0M	-$358.0M	—	—

3. DNLI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DNLI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Denali Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: DNLI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $19.32 (+0.16% 1D, market cap $3.09B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, DNLI ranks #631 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DNLI compare to BEAM and ADMA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), DNLI carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BEAM (Beam Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.1%, cap $2.98B) and ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 17.9x, ROIC 32.9%, cap $2.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADMA leads on earnings multiple (17.9x) while ADMA leads on capital efficiency (32.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DNLI?

Per DNLI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001714899), Denali Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$512.5M in net income, and -$422.1M in free cash flow against $1.14B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DNLI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DNLI last traded at $19.32 (+0.16% on volume of 1,449,958 shares), positioning the stock -6.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.64) and -9.00% below its 200-day simple moving average ($21.23). Across its 52-week range of $13.75 to $27.30, DNLI sits at the 41.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($17.58 to $21.06).

DNLI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are DNLI insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies DNLI leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: DNLI RQD Cockpit DNLI 12M Forecast DNLI Earnings & Move DNLI Dividends & DRIP DNLI Insiders & 13F DNLI Whale Options DNLI Profit Sankey DNLI News & Why