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Stock Ratings / Financials / DFDV / insiders
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DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$3.30 -14.29% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.21

DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 27/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $125.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on DFDV Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is DFDV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, DeFi Development Corp. (NASDAQ: DFDV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $3.30 (-14.29% 1D, market cap $125.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, DFDV ranks #1049 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does DFDV compare to LX and AMBR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), DFDV carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -12.7%. By comparison, LX (LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $105.5M) and AMBR (Amber International Holding Limited) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $150.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFDV leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NSLR leads on capital efficiency (23.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DFDV?
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Per DFDV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001805526), DeFi Development Corp. generated $11.4M in revenue (+442.2% YoY), -$73.8M in net income, and -$18.0M in free cash flow against $307.4M in total assets and $127.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.21 (-2.76%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510027
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (5)SEC (8)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.9% Base Target
$11 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE DFDV RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DFDV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (27/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY DFDV SCORES 27/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 10% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 36.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$4.51-16.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
32
Grade E$3.77-1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$3.70-10.8% Next Q
Current
27
Grade E$3.30-10.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (35) → E (27)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DFDV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While DFDV currently carries a cautious 27/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.84) and Max Pain ($3.47) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.41.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DFDV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “DFDV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 27%NO 73%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

DFDV Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (DFDV)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on DFDV. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DFDV)

  • ✓Walkthrough of DFDV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
DFDV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.83%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $3.47H $3.48L $3.23C $3.30VOL 2.19M
RES: $7.96SUP: $2.44SMA50: $4.84SMA200: $4.09
$10.14$8.06$5.97$3.88$1.79RES $7.96SUP $2.44$3.302026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DFDV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 DFDV Butterfly Map → + Track DFDV →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DFDV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DFDV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DFDV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DFDV)

Financials Rank #1049 of 1096 ⚔️ LX vs DFDV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (DFDV vs. LX, AMBR, DEFT, NSLR)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) ranks #1049 by composite RQD confidence (27/100, grade E) and #938 by equity capitalization ($125.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DFDV leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NSLR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.8% ROIC and — gross margin. NSLR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with DFDV at 27/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
DFDV ACTIVE
DeFi Development Corp.
E 27/100 — — -12.7% -14.29% $125.6M Benchmark Subject
LX
LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.
D+ 58/100 — — — -5.03% $105.5M /lx-vs-dfdv →
AMBR
Amber International Holding Limited
E 34/100 — — -35.0% +10.63% $150.8M /ambr-vs-dfdv →
DEFT
Defi Technologies Inc.
D+ 56/100 — — — -8.47% $155.2M /deft-vs-dfdv →
NSLR
Neostellar Capital Corp.
C- 61/100 — — 23.8% -0.84% $158.3M /nslr-vs-dfdv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001805526

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) reported GAAP revenue of $11.4M (+442.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.1M , and +468.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$73.8M, operating cash flow of -$18.0M, and free cash flow of -$18.0M (-636.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, DFDV closed FY2025 with $307.4M in total assets against $127.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $11.4M -$73.8M -$18.0M -$18.0M $307.4M $127.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.1M -$2.7M -$2.4M -$2.4M $4.4M $0
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.0M -$3.4M -$1.6M -$1.6M — —

3. DFDV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DFDV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, DeFi Development Corp. (NASDAQ: DFDV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $3.30 (-14.29% 1D, market cap $125.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, DFDV ranks #1049 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DFDV compare to LX and AMBR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), DFDV carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -12.7%. By comparison, LX (LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $105.5M) and AMBR (Amber International Holding Limited) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $150.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFDV leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NSLR leads on capital efficiency (23.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DFDV?

Per DFDV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001805526), DeFi Development Corp. generated $11.4M in revenue (+442.2% YoY), -$73.8M in net income, and -$18.0M in free cash flow against $307.4M in total assets and $127.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DFDV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DFDV last traded at $3.30 (-14.29% on volume of 2,192,812 shares), positioning the stock -31.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.84) and -19.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.09). Across its 52-week range of $2.44 to $10.87, DFDV sits at the 10.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.89 to $3.71).

DFDV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are DFDV insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies DFDV leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: DFDV RQD Cockpit DFDV 12M Forecast DFDV Earnings & Move DFDV Dividends & DRIP DFDV Insiders & 13F DFDV Whale Options DFDV Profit Sankey DFDV News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 27/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

DFDV — DeFi Development Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: roarable-bundle-v1
As of: 2026-11-02T15:08:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD 5-pillar rating engine, DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) carries a composite score of 27 / 100 (E — Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid).\n- Fundamental Cash Engine (5 / 20): Return on invested capital (ROIC) registers at -12.7% with a free cash flow yield of -14.31% and gross margin of 0.0%.\n- Institutional 13F Whale Flow (5 / 20): Tracks institutional accumulation and dark-pool/options positioning relative to the Finance: Consumer Services cohort.\n- Insider & Congressional Conviction (3 / 20): Evaluates open-market Form 4 executive purchases and Congressional PTR disclosures.\n- Macro Regime Fit (6 / 20): Equity beta of 1.00 across the Financials sector.\n- Forensic Balance-Sheet Shield (8 / 20): Altman Z-Score of 2.50, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt-to-Equity of 0.50.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %\n------------------------------\n$3.30$125.6MN/AN/AN/AN/A0.00%1.00$2.44 - $10.87-12.7%

Business & Sector Positioning

DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) is a NASDAQ-listed Financials issuer operating in Finance: Consumer Services with a market capitalization of $0.1B.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Operating within Finance: Consumer Services (Financials), DFDV exhibits an operating margin of -60.0% and net margin of -60.0%. Prospective investors should monitor 2nd-order capex cycles, input cost pass-through in gross margin (0.0%), and valuation discipline (current multiple) relative to free cash flow conversion.

Open Questions for Prospective Investors

  • How sustainable is DFDV's current operating margin (-60.0%) and ROIC (-12.7%) over the next four quarters?\n2. Does the current valuation multiple (current EV/EBITDA) adequately discount macro sensitivity (Beta 1.00) in Finance: Consumer Services?\n3. Will upcoming quarterly cash flow conversion support continued balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 2.50)?

DFDV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to DFDV Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

DFDV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.30?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON DFDV 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on DFDV:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.90 (-12.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is DFDV (E • RQD 27/100) a Buy at $3.30?

Welcome to the DFDV (DeFi Development Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 27/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Finance: Consumer Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.77 (-16.1%)
Spot @ $3.30

Pump the brakes on DFDV — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on DFDV, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless DeFi Development Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.76 (+13.9%)
Spot @ $3.30

DFDV cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on DFDV, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance: Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $3.30 (52-wk range $2.44 - $10.87), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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