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Stock Ratings / Financials / DFDV / earnings
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DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$3.30 -14.29% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.21

DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 27/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $125.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on DFDV Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is DFDV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, DeFi Development Corp. (NASDAQ: DFDV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $3.30 (-14.29% 1D, market cap $125.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, DFDV ranks #1049 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does DFDV compare to LX and AMBR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), DFDV carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -12.7%. By comparison, LX (LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $105.5M) and AMBR (Amber International Holding Limited) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $150.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFDV leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NSLR leads on capital efficiency (23.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DFDV?
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Per DFDV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001805526), DeFi Development Corp. generated $11.4M in revenue (+442.2% YoY), -$73.8M in net income, and -$18.0M in free cash flow against $307.4M in total assets and $127.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.21 (-2.76%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510027
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (5)SEC (8)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.9% Base Target
$11 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE DFDV RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DFDV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (27/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY DFDV SCORES 27/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 10% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 36.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$4.51-16.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
32
Grade E$3.77-1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$3.70-10.8% Next Q
Current
27
Grade E$3.30-10.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (35) → E (27)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DFDV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While DFDV currently carries a cautious 27/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.84) and Max Pain ($3.47) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.41.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DFDV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “DFDV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 27%NO 73%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.41 Expected Swing
$2.89 (-12.5%)Spot $3.30$3.71 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

DFDV Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 27/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 180%

Model Bullish Setup (27/100)Model Risk Weight (73/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$11.4M-$73.8M-$18.0M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$2.1M-$2.7M-$2.4M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$2.0M-$3.4M-$1.6M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DFDV)

  • ✓Walkthrough of DFDV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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DFDV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.83%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $3.47H $3.48L $3.23C $3.30VOL 2.19M
RES: $7.96SUP: $2.44SMA50: $4.84SMA200: $4.09
$10.14$8.06$5.97$3.88$1.79RES $7.96SUP $2.44$3.302026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DFDV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 DFDV Butterfly Map → + Track DFDV →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DFDV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DFDV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DFDV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DFDV)

Financials Rank #1049 of 1096 ⚔️ LX vs DFDV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (DFDV vs. LX, AMBR, DEFT, NSLR)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) ranks #1049 by composite RQD confidence (27/100, grade E) and #938 by equity capitalization ($125.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DFDV leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NSLR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.8% ROIC and — gross margin. NSLR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with DFDV at 27/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
DFDV ACTIVE
DeFi Development Corp.
E 27/100 — — -12.7% -14.29% $125.6M Benchmark Subject
LX
LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.
D+ 58/100 — — — -5.03% $105.5M /lx-vs-dfdv →
AMBR
Amber International Holding Limited
E 34/100 — — -35.0% +10.63% $150.8M /ambr-vs-dfdv →
DEFT
Defi Technologies Inc.
D+ 56/100 — — — -8.47% $155.2M /deft-vs-dfdv →
NSLR
Neostellar Capital Corp.
C- 61/100 — — 23.8% -0.84% $158.3M /nslr-vs-dfdv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001805526

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) reported GAAP revenue of $11.4M (+442.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.1M , and +468.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$73.8M, operating cash flow of -$18.0M, and free cash flow of -$18.0M (-636.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, DFDV closed FY2025 with $307.4M in total assets against $127.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $11.4M -$73.8M -$18.0M -$18.0M $307.4M $127.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.1M -$2.7M -$2.4M -$2.4M $4.4M $0
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.0M -$3.4M -$1.6M -$1.6M — —

3. DFDV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DFDV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, DeFi Development Corp. (NASDAQ: DFDV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $3.30 (-14.29% 1D, market cap $125.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, DFDV ranks #1049 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DFDV compare to LX and AMBR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), DFDV carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -12.7%. By comparison, LX (LexinFintech Holdings Ltd.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $105.5M) and AMBR (Amber International Holding Limited) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $150.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFDV leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NSLR leads on capital efficiency (23.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DFDV?

Per DFDV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001805526), DeFi Development Corp. generated $11.4M in revenue (+442.2% YoY), -$73.8M in net income, and -$18.0M in free cash flow against $307.4M in total assets and $127.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DFDV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DFDV last traded at $3.30 (-14.29% on volume of 2,192,812 shares), positioning the stock -31.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.84) and -19.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.09). Across its 52-week range of $2.44 to $10.87, DFDV sits at the 10.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.89 to $3.71).

DFDV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is DFDV's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is DFDV stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for DFDV, spanning a range between $2.89 and $3.71.

Direct Sub-Reports: DFDV RQD Cockpit DFDV 12M Forecast DFDV Earnings & Move DFDV Dividends & DRIP DFDV Insiders & 13F DFDV Whale Options DFDV Profit Sankey DFDV News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 27/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

DFDV — DeFi Development Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: roarable-bundle-v1
As of: 2026-11-02T15:08:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD 5-pillar rating engine, DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) carries a composite score of 27 / 100 (E — Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid).\n- Fundamental Cash Engine (5 / 20): Return on invested capital (ROIC) registers at -12.7% with a free cash flow yield of -14.31% and gross margin of 0.0%.\n- Institutional 13F Whale Flow (5 / 20): Tracks institutional accumulation and dark-pool/options positioning relative to the Finance: Consumer Services cohort.\n- Insider & Congressional Conviction (3 / 20): Evaluates open-market Form 4 executive purchases and Congressional PTR disclosures.\n- Macro Regime Fit (6 / 20): Equity beta of 1.00 across the Financials sector.\n- Forensic Balance-Sheet Shield (8 / 20): Altman Z-Score of 2.50, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt-to-Equity of 0.50.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %\n------------------------------\n$3.30$125.6MN/AN/AN/AN/A0.00%1.00$2.44 - $10.87-12.7%

Business & Sector Positioning

DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) is a NASDAQ-listed Financials issuer operating in Finance: Consumer Services with a market capitalization of $0.1B.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Operating within Finance: Consumer Services (Financials), DFDV exhibits an operating margin of -60.0% and net margin of -60.0%. Prospective investors should monitor 2nd-order capex cycles, input cost pass-through in gross margin (0.0%), and valuation discipline (current multiple) relative to free cash flow conversion.

Open Questions for Prospective Investors

  • How sustainable is DFDV's current operating margin (-60.0%) and ROIC (-12.7%) over the next four quarters?\n2. Does the current valuation multiple (current EV/EBITDA) adequately discount macro sensitivity (Beta 1.00) in Finance: Consumer Services?\n3. Will upcoming quarterly cash flow conversion support continued balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 2.50)?

DFDV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to DFDV Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

DFDV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.30?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON DFDV 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on DFDV:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.90 (-12.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is DFDV (E • RQD 27/100) a Buy at $3.30?

Welcome to the DFDV (DeFi Development Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 27/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Finance: Consumer Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.77 (-16.1%)
Spot @ $3.30

Pump the brakes on DFDV — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on DFDV, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless DeFi Development Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.76 (+13.9%)
Spot @ $3.30

DFDV cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on DFDV, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance: Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $3.30 (52-wk range $2.44 - $10.87), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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