Stock Ratings / Health Care / CSTL / options

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Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$38.51 +4.99% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.78

Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.18B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.78 (+0.71%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 8.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CSTL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CSTL SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.97 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 78% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$34.42-7.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$31.96+3.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$33.08+16.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$38.51+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CSTL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, CSTL faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 76.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($34.22) or 200D SMA ($28.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($38.86) toward Bear Floor ($30.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CSTL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CSTL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±11.2%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CSTL)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CSTL.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating CSTL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on CSTL
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✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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CSTL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +57.25%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $38.03H $38.51L $36.73C $38.51VOL 334.3K

RES: $39.72SUP: $32.29SMA50: $34.22SMA200: $28.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CSTL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CSTL Butterfly Map → + Track CSTL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CSTL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CSTL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CSTL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CSTL)

Health Care Rank #203 of 1016 ⚔️ LMRI vs CSTL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CSTL vs. LMRI, TRUP, FRNM, ALHC)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) ranks #203 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #339 by equity capitalization ($1.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRUP leads on earnings valuation at 68.2x trailing P/E, while ALHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and — gross margin. ALHC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with CSTL at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CSTL ACTIVE Castle Biosciences Inc.	C-	60/100	—	79.4%	-9.3%	+4.99%	$1.18B	Benchmark Subject
LMRI Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	+0.95%	$1.13B	/lmri-vs-cstl →
TRUP Trupanion Inc.	C	64/100	68.2x	16.1%	3.1%	+2.27%	$1.32B	/trup-vs-cstl →
FRNM Freenome Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-3.4%	-4.32%	$1.38B	/frnm-vs-cstl →
ALHC Alignment Healthcare Inc.	C+	67/100	—	—	13.9%	-1.47%	$1.67B	/alhc-vs-cstl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001447362

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) reported GAAP revenue of $344.2M (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $332.1M , and +56.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$24.2M, operating cash flow of $64.3M, and free cash flow of $28.3M (-22.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, CSTL closed FY2025 with $578.6M in total assets against $9.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.97, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$344.2M	-$24.2M	$64.3M	$28.3M	$578.6M	$9.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$332.1M	$18.2M	$64.9M	$36.5M	$531.2M	$9.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$219.8M	-$57.5M	-$5.6M	-$5.6M	—	—

3. CSTL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CSTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Castle Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $38.51 (+4.99% 1D, market cap $1.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, CSTL ranks #203 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CSTL compare to LMRI and TRUP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), CSTL carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.4%, and ROIC of -9.3%. By comparison, LMRI (Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.13B) and TRUP (Trupanion Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 68.2x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CSTL?

Per CSTL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001447362), Castle Biosciences Inc. generated $344.2M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), -$24.2M in net income, and $28.3M in free cash flow against $578.6M in total assets and $9.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CSTL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CSTL last traded at $38.51 (+4.99% on volume of 723,935 shares), positioning the stock +12.54% above its 50-day simple moving average ($34.22) and +34.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.53). Across its 52-week range of $17.72 to $44.28, CSTL sits at the 78.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.2% ($34.20 to $42.82).

CSTL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CSTL's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for CSTL.

Direct Sub-Reports: CSTL RQD Cockpit CSTL 12M Forecast CSTL Earnings & Move CSTL Dividends & DRIP CSTL Insiders & 13F CSTL Whale Options CSTL Profit Sankey CSTL News & Why