Stock Ratings / Health Care / CSTL / earnings

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Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±11.2% Move

$38.51 +4.99% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.78

Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.18B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.78 (+0.71%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 8.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CSTL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CSTL SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.97 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 78% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$34.42-7.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$31.96+3.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$33.08+16.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$38.51+0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CSTL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, CSTL faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 76.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($34.22) or 200D SMA ($28.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($38.86) toward Bear Floor ($30.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CSTL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CSTL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±11.2% Swing Band

±$4.31 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

CSTL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 60/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3.7%

Model Bullish Setup (60/100)Model Risk Weight (40/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$344.2M	-$24.2M	$28.3M	79.4%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$332.1M	$18.2M	$36.5M	81.9%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$219.8M	-$57.5M	-$5.6M	79.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating CSTL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on CSTL
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CSTL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +57.25%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $38.03H $38.51L $36.73C $38.51VOL 334.3K

RES: $39.72SUP: $32.29SMA50: $34.22SMA200: $28.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CSTL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CSTL Butterfly Map → + Track CSTL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CSTL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CSTL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CSTL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CSTL)

Health Care Rank #203 of 1016 ⚔️ LMRI vs CSTL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CSTL vs. LMRI, TRUP, FRNM, ALHC)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) ranks #203 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #339 by equity capitalization ($1.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRUP leads on earnings valuation at 68.2x trailing P/E, while ALHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and — gross margin. ALHC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with CSTL at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CSTL ACTIVE Castle Biosciences Inc.	C-	60/100	—	79.4%	-9.3%	+4.99%	$1.18B	Benchmark Subject
LMRI Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	+0.95%	$1.13B	/lmri-vs-cstl →
TRUP Trupanion Inc.	C	64/100	68.2x	16.1%	3.1%	+2.27%	$1.32B	/trup-vs-cstl →
FRNM Freenome Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-3.4%	-4.32%	$1.38B	/frnm-vs-cstl →
ALHC Alignment Healthcare Inc.	C+	67/100	—	—	13.9%	-1.47%	$1.67B	/alhc-vs-cstl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001447362

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL) reported GAAP revenue of $344.2M (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $332.1M , and +56.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$24.2M, operating cash flow of $64.3M, and free cash flow of $28.3M (-22.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, CSTL closed FY2025 with $578.6M in total assets against $9.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.97, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$344.2M	-$24.2M	$64.3M	$28.3M	$578.6M	$9.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$332.1M	$18.2M	$64.9M	$36.5M	$531.2M	$9.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$219.8M	-$57.5M	-$5.6M	-$5.6M	—	—

3. CSTL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CSTL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Castle Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $38.51 (+4.99% 1D, market cap $1.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, CSTL ranks #203 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CSTL compare to LMRI and TRUP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), CSTL carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.4%, and ROIC of -9.3%. By comparison, LMRI (Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.13B) and TRUP (Trupanion Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 68.2x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CSTL?

Per CSTL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001447362), Castle Biosciences Inc. generated $344.2M in revenue (+3.7% YoY), -$24.2M in net income, and $28.3M in free cash flow against $578.6M in total assets and $9.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CSTL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CSTL last traded at $38.51 (+4.99% on volume of 723,935 shares), positioning the stock +12.54% above its 50-day simple moving average ($34.22) and +34.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.53). Across its 52-week range of $17.72 to $44.28, CSTL sits at the 78.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.2% ($34.20 to $42.82).

CSTL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is CSTL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Castle Biosciences Inc. (CSTL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is CSTL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±11.2% event move for CSTL, spanning a range between $34.2 and $42.82.

Direct Sub-Reports: CSTL RQD Cockpit CSTL 12M Forecast CSTL Earnings & Move CSTL Dividends & DRIP CSTL Insiders & 13F CSTL Whale Options CSTL Profit Sankey CSTL News & Why