MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why CRNC Stock dropped -3.42% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$8.19 -3.42% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.12
Cerence Inc. (CRNC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $370.4M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.12 (-0.81%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 18.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CRNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CRNC SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (31% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 31% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (20% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.6% FCF Margin ($46.8M FCF) & 72.7% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$8.43+5.9% Next Q
53
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$8.93-6.6% Next Q
50
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$8.34-1.8% Next Q
48
CurrentGrade D$8.19-6.3% Hist 90D α
45
Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CRNC Turnaround Squeeze
While CRNC currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.30) and Max Pain ($8.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $13.94.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CRNC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CRNC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CRNC Stock dropped -3.42% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Cerence Inc. (CRNC) dropped -3.42% to $8.19, trading at 31% of its 52-week range ($5.85 – $13.28). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 31% of its 52-week range ($5.85 – $13.28) with RSI-14 at 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.1% around $8.19 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 72.7% gross margin and $46.8M annual free cash flow.
Live CRNC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CRNC)
- ✓Walkthrough of CRNC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CRNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.00%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $7.94H $8.19L $7.81C $8.19VOL 463.1K
RES: $9.44SUP: $7.69SMA50: $8.30SMA200: $8.97
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CRNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -24.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CRNC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CRNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CRNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CRNC)
Technology Rank #486 of 714
⚔️ API vs CRNC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (CRNC vs. API, LAW, MTLS, MKTW)
Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cerence Inc. (CRNC) ranks #486 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #432 by equity capitalization ($370.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, API leads on earnings valuation at 39.1x trailing P/E, while MKTW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 86.5% gross margin. API currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with CRNC at 45/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRNC
ACTIVE
Cerence Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | 72.7% | -0.6% | -3.42% | $370.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| API Agora Inc. | C- | 59/100 | 39.1x | 66.4% | -1.5% | -0.22% | $372.8M | /api-vs-crnc → |
| LAW CS Disco Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | 74.9% | -35.0% | +0.95% | $344.1M | /law-vs-crnc → |
| MTLS Materialise NV | C- | 59/100 | — | — | — | +6.79% | $427.6M | /mtls-vs-crnc → |
| MKTW MarketWise Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 58/100 | 56.1x | 86.5% | 85.0% | -1.04% | $315.0M | /mktw-vs-crnc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001768267In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Cerence Inc. (CRNC) reported GAAP revenue of $251.8M (-24.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $331.5M , and -14.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$18.7M, operating cash flow of $61.2M, and free cash flow of $46.8M (+283.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, CRNC closed FY2025 with $602.0M in total assets against $171.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $251.8M | -$18.7M | $61.2M | $46.8M | $602.0M | $171.9M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $331.5M | -$588.1M | $17.2M | $12.2M | $617.5M | $196.2M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $294.5M | -$56.3M | $7.5M | $7.5M | — | — |
3. CRNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CRNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ: CRNC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $8.19 (-3.42% 1D, market cap $370.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, CRNC ranks #486 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CRNC compare to API and LAW in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), CRNC carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 72.7%, and ROIC of -0.6%. By comparison, API (Agora Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 39.1x, ROIC -1.5%, cap $372.8M) and LAW (CS Disco Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $344.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, API leads on earnings multiple (39.1x) while MKTW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRNC?
Per CRNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001768267), Cerence Inc. generated $251.8M in revenue (-24.0% YoY), -$18.7M in net income, and $46.8M in free cash flow against $602.0M in total assets and $171.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CRNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CRNC last traded at $8.19 (-3.42% on volume of 554,082 shares), positioning the stock -1.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.30) and -8.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.97). Across its 52-week range of $5.85 to $13.28, CRNC sits at the 31.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.1% ($7.36 to $9.02).
CRNC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CRNC stock moving today?
Why CRNC Stock dropped -3.42% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.