Stock Ratings / Technology / CRNC / financials

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Cerence Inc. (CRNC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$8.19 -3.42% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.12

Cerence Inc. (CRNC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $370.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.12 (-0.81%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 18.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CRNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CRNC SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (31% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 31% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.6% FCF Margin ($46.8M FCF) & 72.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$8.43+5.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$8.93-6.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$8.34-1.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$8.19-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CRNC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CRNC currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.30) and Max Pain ($8.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $13.94.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CRNC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CRNC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How CRNC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$46.8M (18.6% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $294.5M

FY24

Rev $331.5M

FY25

Rev $251.8M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$251.8M	72.7%	-0.9%	-$18.7M	$46.8M	-0.6%
FY 2024	$331.5M	73.7%	-80%	-$588.1M	$12.2M	-45%
FY 2023	$294.5M	72.7%	-9.2%	-$56.3M	$7.5M	-0.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CRNC)

✓Walkthrough of CRNC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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CRNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.00%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $7.94H $8.19L $7.81C $8.19VOL 463.1K

RES: $9.44SUP: $7.69SMA50: $8.30SMA200: $8.97

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CRNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CRNC Butterfly Map → + Track CRNC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -24.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CRNC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CRNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CRNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CRNC)

Technology Rank #486 of 714 ⚔️ API vs CRNC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (CRNC vs. API, LAW, MTLS, MKTW)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cerence Inc. (CRNC) ranks #486 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #432 by equity capitalization ($370.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, API leads on earnings valuation at 39.1x trailing P/E, while MKTW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 86.5% gross margin. API currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with CRNC at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CRNC ACTIVE Cerence Inc.	D	45/100	—	72.7%	-0.6%	-3.42%	$370.4M	Benchmark Subject
API Agora Inc.	C-	59/100	39.1x	66.4%	-1.5%	-0.22%	$372.8M	/api-vs-crnc →
LAW CS Disco Inc.	D-	35/100	—	74.9%	-35.0%	+0.95%	$344.1M	/law-vs-crnc →
MTLS Materialise NV	C-	59/100	—	—	—	+6.79%	$427.6M	/mtls-vs-crnc →
MKTW MarketWise Inc. (Class A)	D+	58/100	56.1x	86.5%	85.0%	-1.04%	$315.0M	/mktw-vs-crnc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001768267

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Cerence Inc. (CRNC) reported GAAP revenue of $251.8M (-24.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $331.5M , and -14.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$18.7M, operating cash flow of $61.2M, and free cash flow of $46.8M (+283.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, CRNC closed FY2025 with $602.0M in total assets against $171.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$251.8M	-$18.7M	$61.2M	$46.8M	$602.0M	$171.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$331.5M	-$588.1M	$17.2M	$12.2M	$617.5M	$196.2M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$294.5M	-$56.3M	$7.5M	$7.5M	—	—

3. CRNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CRNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ: CRNC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $8.19 (-3.42% 1D, market cap $370.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, CRNC ranks #486 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CRNC compare to API and LAW in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), CRNC carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 72.7%, and ROIC of -0.6%. By comparison, API (Agora Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 39.1x, ROIC -1.5%, cap $372.8M) and LAW (CS Disco Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $344.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, API leads on earnings multiple (39.1x) while MKTW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRNC?

Per CRNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001768267), Cerence Inc. generated $251.8M in revenue (-24.0% YoY), -$18.7M in net income, and $46.8M in free cash flow against $602.0M in total assets and $171.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CRNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CRNC last traded at $8.19 (-3.42% on volume of 554,082 shares), positioning the stock -1.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.30) and -8.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.97). Across its 52-week range of $5.85 to $13.28, CRNC sits at the 31.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.1% ($7.36 to $9.02).

CRNC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Cerence Inc. (CRNC)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), CRNC converted $251.8M of revenue into a 72.7% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $46.8M in free cash flow (18.6% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: CRNC RQD Cockpit CRNC 12M Forecast CRNC Earnings & Move CRNC Dividends & DRIP CRNC Insiders & 13F CRNC Whale Options CRNC Profit Sankey CRNC News & Why