Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CMG / financials

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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$31.28 +8.88% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $39.58B

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RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CMG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How CMG Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$1.45B (12.1% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $9.87B

FY24

Rev $11.31B

FY25

Rev $11.93B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$11.93B	52%	16.2%	$1.54B	$1.45B	29.1%
FY 2024	$11.31B	52%	16.9%	$1.53B	$1.51B	28%
FY 2023	$9.87B	52%	15.8%	$1.23B	$1.34B	9.4%

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CMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.19%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-01O $28.73H $31.28L $28.73C $31.28VOL 42.48M

RES: $38.64SUP: $26.81SMA50: $32.96SMA200: $34.01

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CMG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CMG Butterfly Map → + Track CMG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

19.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CMG today. View full Setup Ledger →

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No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CMG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

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DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CMG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #114 of 304 ⚔️ YUM vs CMG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CMG vs. YUM, QSR, DRI, YUMC)

Industry: Restaurants (16 Tracked Issuers)

Across 304 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) ranks #114 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #55 by equity capitalization ($39.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, YUMC leads on earnings valuation at 16.7x trailing P/E, while YUM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.3% ROIC and 69.8% gross margin. YUM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with CMG at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CMG ACTIVE Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.	C+	68/100	25.8x	—	30.2%	+8.88%	$39.58B	Benchmark Subject
YUM Yum! Brands Inc.	B	74/100	27.1x	69.8%	60.3%	+2.92%	$42.18B	/yum-vs-cmg →
QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc.	D	50/100	30.9x	—	12.6%	-2.03%	$33.18B	/qsr-vs-cmg →
DRI Darden Restaurants Inc.	C	64/100	20.7x	20.3%	19.5%	+1.81%	$24.95B	/dri-vs-cmg →
YUMC Yum China Holdings Inc.	B-	71/100	16.7x	—	14.9%	+1.60%	$15.48B	/yumc-vs-cmg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001058090

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) reported GAAP revenue of $11.93B (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.31B , and +20.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.54B, operating cash flow of $2.11B, and free cash flow of $1.45B (-4.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, CMG closed FY2025 with $8.99B in total assets against $2.77B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.02, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$11.93B	$1.54B	$2.11B	$1.45B	$8.99B	$2.77B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$11.31B	$1.53B	$2.11B	$1.51B	$9.20B	$2.50B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$9.87B	$1.23B	$1.78B	$1.34B	$21.77B	$5.09B

3. CMG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $31.28 (+8.88% 1D, market cap $39.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 304 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CMG ranks #114 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CMG compare to YUM and QSR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CMG carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.2%. By comparison, YUM (Yum! Brands Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 27.1x, ROIC 60.3%, cap $42.18B) and QSR (Restaurant Brands International Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 30.9x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $33.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while YUM leads on capital efficiency (60.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMG?

Per CMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001058090), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. generated $11.93B in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $1.54B in net income, and $1.45B in free cash flow against $8.99B in total assets and $2.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CMG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CMG last traded at $31.28 (+8.88% on volume of 42,481,889 shares), positioning the stock -5.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($32.96) and -8.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($34.01). Across its 52-week range of $27.31 to $41.42, CMG sits at the 28.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($28.68 to $33.88).

CMG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

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How profitable is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), CMG converted $11.9B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 16.2% operating margin, and $1.4B in free cash flow (12.1% FCF margin).

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