Stock Ratings / Technology / CHR / financials

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Cheer Holding Inc. Class A Ordinary Share (CHR) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$1.35 +12.50% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.38

Cheer Holding Inc. Class A Ordinary Share (CHR) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.38 (+2.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 12.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CHR SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$1.51-2.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$1.47-10.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$1.31+3.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$1.35+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, CHR faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($1.59) or 200D SMA ($2.29) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($1.36) toward Bear Floor ($1.06).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CHR• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CHR Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How CHR Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$17.9M (12.1% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $152.3M

FY24

Rev $147.2M

FY25

Rev $148.8M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$148.8M	71%	17.7%	$25.6M	$17.9M	16.3%
FY 2024	$147.2M	73.2%	17.4%	$26.0M	$22.9M	18.8%
FY 2023	$152.3M	71%	19.2%	$30.5M	$42.2M	16.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CHR)

✓Walkthrough of CHR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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CHR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.19%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $1.43H $1.44L $1.32C $1.35VOL 7.5K

RES: $1.69SUP: $1.12SMA50: $1.59SMA200: $2.29

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CHR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CHR Butterfly Map → + Track CHR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHR)

Technology Rank #272 of 714 ⚔️ MASK vs CHR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (CHR vs. MASK, DAIC, AGMH, CXAI)

Industry: EDP Services (163 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cheer Holding Inc. Class A Ordinary Share (CHR) ranks #272 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #690 by equity capitalization ($3.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MASK leads on earnings valuation at 4.7x trailing P/E, while MASK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.9% ROIC and 49.8% gross margin. MASK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with CHR at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CHR ACTIVE Cheer Holding Inc. Class A Ordinary Share	C-	59/100	—	71.0%	16.3%	+12.50%	$3.2M	Benchmark Subject
MASK 3 E Network Technology Group Ltd (Class A)	C	63/100	4.7x	49.8%	17.9%	-4.28%	$3.6M	/mask-vs-chr →
DAIC CID HoldCo Inc.	D-	43/100	—	46.0%	-35.0%	+12.26%	$3.7M	/daic-vs-chr →
AGMH AGM Group Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	42/100	4.8x	10.3%	-9.5%	-0.12%	$2.7M	/agmh-vs-chr →
CXAI CXApp Inc. (Class A)	E	33/100	—	87.4%	-35.0%	-3.20%	$3.9M	/cxai-vs-chr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001738758

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Cheer Holding Inc. Class A Ordinary Share (CHR) reported GAAP revenue of $148.8M (+1.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $147.2M , and -2.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $25.6M, operating cash flow of $17.9M, and free cash flow of $17.9M (-21.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, CHR closed FY2025 with $401.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.46, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$148.8M	$25.6M	$17.9M	$17.9M	$401.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$147.2M	$26.0M	$22.9M	$22.9M	$346.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$152.3M	$30.5M	$42.2M	$42.2M	—	—

3. CHR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CHR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Cheer Holding Inc. Class A Ordinary Share (NASDAQ: CHR) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $1.35 (+12.50% 1D, market cap $3.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, CHR ranks #272 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CHR compare to MASK and DAIC in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), CHR carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 71.0%, and ROIC of 16.3%. By comparison, MASK (3 E Network Technology Group Ltd (Class A)) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 4.7x, ROIC 17.9%, cap $3.6M) and DAIC (CID HoldCo Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MASK leads on earnings multiple (4.7x) while MASK leads on capital efficiency (17.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHR?

Per CHR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001738758), Cheer Holding Inc. Class A Ordinary Share generated $148.8M in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $25.6M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $401.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CHR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CHR last traded at $1.35 (+12.50% on volume of 21,304 shares), positioning the stock -15.09% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.59) and -41.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.29). Across its 52-week range of $1.16 to $42.00, CHR sits at the 0.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.18 to $1.52).

CHR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Cheer Holding Inc. Class A Ordinary Share (CHR)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), CHR converted $148.8M of revenue into a 71% gross margin, 17.7% operating margin, and $17.9M in free cash flow (12.1% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: CHR RQD Cockpit CHR 12M Forecast CHR Earnings & Move CHR Dividends & DRIP CHR Insiders & 13F CHR Whale Options CHR Profit Sankey CHR News & Why