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Stock Ratings / Materials / CGAU / forecast
SKE (48) AYA (54) SSRM (61) TGB (54) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$20.20 -1.13% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.12

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.08B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CGAU Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CGAU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Centerra Gold Inc. (NYSE: CGAU) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $20.20 (-1.13% 1D, market cap $4.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, CGAU ranks #99 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CGAU compare to SKE and AYA in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), CGAU carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SKE (Skeena Resources Limited) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.55B) and AYA (Aya Gold & Silver Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SSRM leads on earnings multiple (14.6x) while SSRM leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGAU?
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For Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #99 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.12 (-0.39%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (10)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$26 Bull$19 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE CGAU RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CGAU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CGAU SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 2.9% FCF Margin ($114.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$22.54-2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$22.05-8.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$20.25-0.2% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$20.20-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CGAU Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CGAU currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($22.19) and Max Pain ($21.21) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CGAU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CGAU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CGAU Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $20.20: 495.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $15.19
$7,520
$-2,480 (-24.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $19.47
$9,639
$-361 (-3.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $25.75
$12,748
+$2,748 (+27.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1758%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CGAU)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CGAU's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
CGAU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.96%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $19.89H $20.38L $19.25C $20.20VOL 2.06M
RES: $27.55SUP: $15.13SMA50: $22.19SMA200: $18.96
$25.28$22.12$18.95$15.78$12.62RES $27.55SUP $15.13$20.202026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CGAU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CGAU Butterfly Map → + Track CGAU →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CGAU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CGAU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CGAU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CGAU)

Materials Rank #99 of 270 ⚔️ SKE vs CGAU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (CGAU vs. SKE, AYA, SSRM, TGB)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) ranks #99 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #82 by equity capitalization ($4.08B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SSRM leads on earnings valuation at 14.6x trailing P/E, while SSRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SSRM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with CGAU at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CGAU ACTIVE
Centerra Gold Inc.
D 50/100 — — — -1.13% $4.08B Benchmark Subject
SKE
Skeena Resources Limited
D 48/100 — — — -5.30% $3.55B /ske-vs-cgau →
AYA
Aya Gold & Silver Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — — -5.85% $3.52B /aya-vs-cgau →
SSRM
SSR Mining Inc.
C- 61/100 14.6x — 12.0% -6.33% $5.76B /ssrm-vs-cgau →
TGB
Trekor Metals Limited
D+ 54/100 — — — -6.36% $2.88B /tgb-vs-cgau →

2. CGAU Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) operates in Precious Metals (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $4.08B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. CGAU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CGAU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Centerra Gold Inc. (NYSE: CGAU) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $20.20 (-1.13% 1D, market cap $4.08B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, CGAU ranks #99 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CGAU compare to SKE and AYA in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), CGAU carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SKE (Skeena Resources Limited) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.55B) and AYA (Aya Gold & Silver Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SSRM leads on earnings multiple (14.6x) while SSRM leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGAU?

For Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #99 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CGAU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CGAU last traded at $20.20 (-1.13% on volume of 2,064,172 shares), positioning the stock -8.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($22.19) and +6.54% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.96). Across its 52-week range of $11.13 to $24.52, CGAU sits at the 67.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($18.54 to $21.86).

CGAU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CGAU's 12-month stock price target?

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $19.47 (-3.6% from $20.20), with a bull-case target of $25.75 and a bear-case floor of $15.19.

Is CGAU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates CGAU D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 50/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: CGAU RQD Cockpit CGAU 12M Forecast CGAU Earnings & Move CGAU Dividends & DRIP CGAU Insiders & 13F CGAU Whale Options CGAU Profit Sankey CGAU News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CGAU — Centerra Gold Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:11:32Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CGAU scores 50 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12 of 20 (ROIC 0%; FCF yield 0%); Whale 13F Flow at 6 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 9 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 10 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are the cash engine and the institutional/insider flow signals, which the rating places at the low end of their ranges. The forensic balance sheet is the strongest pillar relative to its maximum, with the Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score sitting in ranges the source labels as reasonable on those metrics alone. The rating's overall message is one of underperformance and distribution risk, meaning the score frames the stock as one where evaluating downside is the priority. Upside drivers would need to come from improved cash generation or stronger flow signals, neither of which the source data currently shows. Valuation tradeoffs cannot be assessed precisely because P/E and EV/EBITDA are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news wire, the most recent item is a Yahoo Finance headline referencing "Record Buybacks, Lower Mount" in a Q3 2026 earnings call summary, tagged as a green catalyst. A ChartMill item tagged as a green catalyst describes the stock as clearing a Minervini trend template with high growth momentum. A TradingView "Bear of the Day" item is tagged as a red risk-watch item. A GuruFocus item tagged as risk watch reports Q3 revenue surpassing estimates. A Simply Wall St forecast item is tagged yellow as market wire, and a Globe and Mail item reports that Bank of America Securities maintains a Sell rating, also tagged yellow. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are CGAU's reported revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow across recent periods?
  • What are the trailing and forward earnings multiples, and how do they compare with peers?
  • What is the source of the institutional, insider, and Congressional flow signals reflected in the RQD pillar scores?
  • What specific risks are behind the Bank of America Sell rating and the risk-watch items in the news wire?
  • What is the company's production profile, asset base, and debt maturity schedule?

CGAU Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CGAU Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CGAU Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.20?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CGAU 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CGAU:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $21.82 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CGAU (D • RQD 50/100) a Buy at $20.20?

Welcome to the CGAU (Centerra Gold Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Precious Metals. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.36 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $20.20

Pump the brakes on CGAU — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CGAU, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Centerra Gold Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $23.63 (+17.0%)
Spot @ $20.20

CGAU cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CGAU, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Precious Metals and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $20.20 (52-wk range $11.13 - $24.52), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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