MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why CARL Stock surged +3.01% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$15.77 +3.01% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.83
Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $430.6M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.83 (+0.35%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CARL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CARL SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (28% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$14.42-7% Next Q
31
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$13.41+8.4% Next Q
34
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$14.53+8.5% Next Q
36
CurrentGrade D-$15.77-7.6% Hist 90D α
39
Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CARL Turnaround Squeeze
While CARL currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.03) and Max Pain ($16.56) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.09.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CARL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CARL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CARL Stock surged +3.01% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) surged +3.01% to $15.77, trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($8.5 – $17.23). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($8.5 – $17.23) with RSI-14 at 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.5% around $15.77 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 75.3% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live CARL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CARL)
- ✓Walkthrough of CARL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
CARL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +77.39%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $15.80H $16.00L $14.85C $15.77VOL 73.2K
RES: $16.25SUP: $13.76SMA50: $15.03SMA200: $12.40
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CARL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CARL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CARL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CARL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CARL)
Health Care Rank #672 of 1016
⚔️ SI vs CARL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CARL vs. SI, OFIX, NPCE, SSII)
Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) ranks #672 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #470 by equity capitalization ($430.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CARL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while OFIX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.2% ROIC and 68.8% gross margin. OFIX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with CARL at 39/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARL
ACTIVE
Carlsmed Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | 75.3% | -35.0% | +3.01% | $430.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| SI Shoulder Innovations Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | 76.5% | -16.1% | +4.93% | $425.5M | /si-vs-carl → |
| OFIX Orthofix Medical Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | — | 68.8% | -12.2% | +1.99% | $417.1M | /ofix-vs-carl → |
| NPCE Neuropace Inc. | E | 30/100 | — | 77.2% | -23.0% | +0.62% | $446.6M | /npce-vs-carl → |
| SSII SS Innovations International Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | 46.0% | -18.5% | -2.46% | $477.2M | /ssii-vs-carl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001794546In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) reported GAAP revenue of $50.5M (+85.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $27.2M ) , GAAP net income of -$29.6M, operating cash flow of -$29.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.6M (-15.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, CARL closed FY2025 with $130.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.83, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $50.5M | -$29.6M | -$29.0M | -$29.6M | $130.1M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $27.2M | -$24.3M | -$25.5M | -$25.6M | $51.8M | — |
3. CARL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CARL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Carlsmed Inc. (NASDAQ: CARL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $15.77 (+3.01% 1D, market cap $430.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, CARL ranks #672 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CARL compare to SI and OFIX in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), CARL carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 75.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SI (Shoulder Innovations Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.1%, cap $425.5M) and OFIX (Orthofix Medical Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.2%, cap $417.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CARL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OFIX leads on capital efficiency (-12.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CARL?
Per CARL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001794546), Carlsmed Inc. generated $50.5M in revenue (+85.9% YoY), -$29.6M in net income, and -$29.6M in free cash flow against $130.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CARL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CARL last traded at $15.77 (+3.01% on volume of 58,644 shares), positioning the stock +4.92% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.03) and +27.18% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.40). Across its 52-week range of $8.50 to $17.23, CARL sits at the 83.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($13.96 to $17.58).
CARL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CARL stock moving today?
Why CARL Stock surged +3.01% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.