Stock Ratings / Health Care / CARL / forecast

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Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$15.77 +3.01% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.83

Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $430.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.83 (+0.35%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CARL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CARL SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$14.42-7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$13.41+8.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$14.53+8.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$15.77-7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CARL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CARL currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.03) and Max Pain ($16.56) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.09.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CARL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CARL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CARL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $15.77: 634.1 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $11.25

$7,134

$-2,866 (-28.7%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $14.42

$9,144

$-856 (-8.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $18.09

$11,471

+$1,471 (+14.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$15	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$17	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$13	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CARL)

✓Walkthrough of CARL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CARL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +77.39%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $15.80H $16.00L $14.85C $15.77VOL 73.2K

RES: $16.25SUP: $13.76SMA50: $15.03SMA200: $12.40

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CARL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CARL Butterfly Map → + Track CARL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CARL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CARL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CARL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CARL)

Health Care Rank #672 of 1016 ⚔️ SI vs CARL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CARL vs. SI, OFIX, NPCE, SSII)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) ranks #672 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #470 by equity capitalization ($430.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CARL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while OFIX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.2% ROIC and 68.8% gross margin. OFIX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with CARL at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CARL ACTIVE Carlsmed Inc.	D-	39/100	—	75.3%	-35.0%	+3.01%	$430.6M	Benchmark Subject
SI Shoulder Innovations Inc.	D-	42/100	—	76.5%	-16.1%	+4.93%	$425.5M	/si-vs-carl →
OFIX Orthofix Medical Inc.	D+	55/100	—	68.8%	-12.2%	+1.99%	$417.1M	/ofix-vs-carl →
NPCE Neuropace Inc.	E	30/100	—	77.2%	-23.0%	+0.62%	$446.6M	/npce-vs-carl →
SSII SS Innovations International Inc.	D-	39/100	—	46.0%	-18.5%	-2.46%	$477.2M	/ssii-vs-carl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001794546

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) reported GAAP revenue of $50.5M (+85.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $27.2M ) , GAAP net income of -$29.6M, operating cash flow of -$29.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.6M (-15.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, CARL closed FY2025 with $130.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.83, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$50.5M	-$29.6M	-$29.0M	-$29.6M	$130.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$27.2M	-$24.3M	-$25.5M	-$25.6M	$51.8M	—

3. CARL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CARL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Carlsmed Inc. (NASDAQ: CARL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $15.77 (+3.01% 1D, market cap $430.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, CARL ranks #672 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CARL compare to SI and OFIX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), CARL carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 75.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SI (Shoulder Innovations Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.1%, cap $425.5M) and OFIX (Orthofix Medical Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.2%, cap $417.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CARL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OFIX leads on capital efficiency (-12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CARL?

Per CARL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001794546), Carlsmed Inc. generated $50.5M in revenue (+85.9% YoY), -$29.6M in net income, and -$29.6M in free cash flow against $130.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CARL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CARL last traded at $15.77 (+3.01% on volume of 58,644 shares), positioning the stock +4.92% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.03) and +27.18% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.40). Across its 52-week range of $8.50 to $17.23, CARL sits at the 83.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($13.96 to $17.58).

CARL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CARL's 12-month stock price target?

Carlsmed Inc. (CARL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $14.42 (-8.6% from $15.77), with a bull-case target of $18.09 and a bear-case floor of $11.25.