MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why CABA Stock surged +4.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$1.59 +4.28% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.60
Cabaletta Bio Inc. (CABA) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $268.7M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.60 (+0.58%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CABA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CABA SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (24% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$1.93-26.9% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$1.41+4.3% Next Q
47
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$1.47+8.2% Next Q
45
CurrentGrade D-$1.59-7% Hist 90D α
42
Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CABA Turnaround Squeeze
While CABA currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.30) and Max Pain ($1.67) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.44.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CABA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CABA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CABA Stock surged +4.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Cabaletta Bio Inc. (CABA) surged +4.28% to $1.59, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($1.32 – $4.23). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($1.32 – $4.23) with RSI-14 at 37.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $1.59 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live CABA Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CABA)
- ✓Walkthrough of CABA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CABA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -46.82%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $1.55H $1.59L $1.43C $1.59VOL 3.73M
RES: $3.52SUP: $1.27SMA50: $2.30SMA200: $2.86
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CABA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CABA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CABA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CABA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CABA)
Health Care Rank #575 of 1016
⚔️ IPSC vs CABA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CABA vs. IPSC, LCTX, FATE, OCGN)
Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cabaletta Bio Inc. (CABA) ranks #575 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #533 by equity capitalization ($268.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CABA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while IPSC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -14.1% ROIC and — gross margin. CABA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 42/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CABA
ACTIVE
Cabaletta Bio Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +4.28% | $268.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| IPSC Century Therapeutics Inc. | E | 28/100 | — | — | -14.1% | -2.67% | $264.4M | /ipsc-vs-caba → |
| LCTX Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc. | E | 29/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -0.96% | $260.5M | /lctx-vs-caba → |
| FATE Fate Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -35.0% | 0.00% | $260.0M | /fate-vs-caba → |
| OCGN Ocugen Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -4.15% | $252.4M | /ocgn-vs-caba → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001759138In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Cabaletta Bio Inc. (CABA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$167.9M, operating cash flow of -$131.1M, and free cash flow of -$132.3M (-46.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, CABA closed FY2025 with $165.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$167.9M | -$131.1M | -$132.3M | $165.1M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | -$115.9M | -$88.2M | -$90.4M | $185.0M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$67.7M | -$53.5M | -$53.5M | — | — |
3. CABA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CABA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Cabaletta Bio Inc. (NASDAQ: CABA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $1.59 (+4.28% 1D, market cap $268.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, CABA ranks #575 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CABA compare to IPSC and LCTX in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), CABA carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IPSC (Century Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.1%, cap $264.4M) and LCTX (Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $260.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CABA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while IPSC leads on capital efficiency (-14.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CABA?
Per CABA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001759138), Cabaletta Bio Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$167.9M in net income, and -$132.3M in free cash flow against $165.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CABA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CABA last traded at $1.59 (+4.28% on volume of 5,412,148 shares), positioning the stock -30.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.30) and -44.41% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.86). Across its 52-week range of $1.32 to $4.23, CABA sits at the 9.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.39 to $1.79).
CABA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CABA stock moving today?
Why CABA Stock surged +4.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.