MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why BMRC Stock slipped -0.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$28.80 -0.31% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.73
Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $466.4M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.73 (-0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BMRC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BMRC SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 72% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$26.67-1% Next Q
58
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$26.41+2.7% Next Q
61
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$27.11+6.2% Next Q
63
CurrentGrade C+$28.80+1.4% Hist 90D α
66
Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BMRC Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, BMRC faces multiple-compression risk if 17.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($27.34) or 200D SMA ($26.80) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($29.84) toward Bear Floor ($23.28).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BMRC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BMRC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why BMRC Stock slipped -0.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) slipped -0.31% to $28.80, trading at 72% of its 52-week range ($23.35 – $30.92). Solid steady margins (7% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 72% of its 52-week range ($23.35 – $30.92) with RSI-14 at 59.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.3% around $28.80 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $37.3M annual free cash flow.
Live BMRC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BMRC Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
BMRC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.32%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $28.87H $28.87L $28.22C $28.80VOL 127.3K
RES: $27.92SUP: $25.30SMA50: $27.34SMA200: $26.80
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
BMRC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
10.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BMRC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BMRC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BMRC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BMRC)
Financials Rank #294 of 1096
⚔️ CBK vs BMRC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BMRC vs. CBK, FRBA, PBAM, RBB)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) ranks #294 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #721 by equity capitalization ($466.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CBK leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while CBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with BMRC at 66/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMRC
ACTIVE
Bank of Marin Bancorp | C+ | 66/100 | 17.6x | — | 6.7% | -0.31% | $466.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| CBK Commercial Bancgroup Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 12.2x | — | 13.0% | +1.17% | $452.0M | /cbk-vs-bmrc → |
| FRBA First Bank | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | +0.47% | $488.6M | /frba-vs-bmrc → |
| PBAM Private Bancorp of America Inc. | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | +0.22% | $490.2M | /pbam-vs-bmrc → |
| RBB RBB Bancorp | C- | 59/100 | 13.8x | — | 6.1% | -0.23% | $440.5M | /rbb-vs-bmrc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001403475In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $26.5M, operating cash flow of $39.1M, and free cash flow of $37.3M (+33.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BMRC closed FY2025 with $3.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $26.5M | $39.1M | $37.3M | $3.90B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $14.5M | $28.4M | $27.8M | $3.70B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $19.9M | $35.7M | $35.7M | — | — |
3. BMRC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs BMRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Bank of Marin Bancorp (NASDAQ: BMRC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $28.80 (-0.31% 1D, market cap $466.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BMRC ranks #294 in composite RQD confidence.
How does BMRC compare to CBK and FRBA in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BMRC carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, CBK (Commercial Bancgroup Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 13.0%, cap $452.0M) and FRBA (First Bank) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $488.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CBK leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while CBK leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BMRC?
Per BMRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001403475), Bank of Marin Bancorp generated $0 in revenue, $26.5M in net income, and $37.3M in free cash flow against $3.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is BMRC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
BMRC last traded at $28.80 (-0.31% on volume of 121,871 shares), positioning the stock +5.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($27.34) and +7.46% above its 200-day simple moving average ($26.80). Across its 52-week range of $23.35 to $30.92, BMRC sits at the 72.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($27.27 to $30.33).
BMRC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is BMRC stock moving today?
Why BMRC Stock slipped -0.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (7% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.