Stock Ratings / Financials / BMRC / forecast

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Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$28.80 -0.31% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.73

Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $466.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.73 (-0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BMRC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BMRC SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 72% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$26.67-1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$26.41+2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$27.11+6.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$28.80+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BMRC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, BMRC faces multiple-compression risk if 17.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($27.34) or 200D SMA ($26.80) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($29.84) toward Bear Floor ($23.28).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BMRC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BMRC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BMRC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $28.80: 347.2 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $23.28

$8,083

$-1,917 (-19.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $29.84

$10,361

+$361 (+3.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $35.21

$12,226

+$2,226 (+22.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$31	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$33	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$27	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BMRC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BMRC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.32%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $28.87H $28.87L $28.22C $28.80VOL 127.3K

RES: $27.92SUP: $25.30SMA50: $27.34SMA200: $26.80

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BMRC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BMRC Butterfly Map → + Track BMRC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

10.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BMRC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BMRC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BMRC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BMRC)

Financials Rank #294 of 1096 ⚔️ CBK vs BMRC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BMRC vs. CBK, FRBA, PBAM, RBB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) ranks #294 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #721 by equity capitalization ($466.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CBK leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while CBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with BMRC at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BMRC ACTIVE Bank of Marin Bancorp	C+	66/100	17.6x	—	6.7%	-0.31%	$466.4M	Benchmark Subject
CBK Commercial Bancgroup Inc.	C+	69/100	12.2x	—	13.0%	+1.17%	$452.0M	/cbk-vs-bmrc →
FRBA First Bank	D	50/100	—	—	—	+0.47%	$488.6M	/frba-vs-bmrc →
PBAM Private Bancorp of America Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	—	+0.22%	$490.2M	/pbam-vs-bmrc →
RBB RBB Bancorp	C-	59/100	13.8x	—	6.1%	-0.23%	$440.5M	/rbb-vs-bmrc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001403475

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $26.5M, operating cash flow of $39.1M, and free cash flow of $37.3M (+33.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BMRC closed FY2025 with $3.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$26.5M	$39.1M	$37.3M	$3.90B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$14.5M	$28.4M	$27.8M	$3.70B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$19.9M	$35.7M	$35.7M	—	—

3. BMRC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BMRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Bank of Marin Bancorp (NASDAQ: BMRC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $28.80 (-0.31% 1D, market cap $466.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BMRC ranks #294 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BMRC compare to CBK and FRBA in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BMRC carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, CBK (Commercial Bancgroup Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 13.0%, cap $452.0M) and FRBA (First Bank) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $488.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CBK leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while CBK leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BMRC?

Per BMRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001403475), Bank of Marin Bancorp generated $0 in revenue, $26.5M in net income, and $37.3M in free cash flow against $3.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BMRC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BMRC last traded at $28.80 (-0.31% on volume of 121,871 shares), positioning the stock +5.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($27.34) and +7.46% above its 200-day simple moving average ($26.80). Across its 52-week range of $23.35 to $30.92, BMRC sits at the 72.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($27.27 to $30.33).

BMRC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is BMRC's 12-month stock price target?

Bank of Marin Bancorp (BMRC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $29.84 (+3.6% from $28.80), with a bull-case target of $35.21 and a bear-case floor of $23.28.

Is BMRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates BMRC C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 66/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: BMRC RQD Cockpit BMRC 12M Forecast BMRC Earnings & Move BMRC Dividends & DRIP BMRC Insiders & 13F BMRC Whale Options BMRC Profit Sankey BMRC News & Why