CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Dividend Announcements: October 17-23, 2026 (Part 1 Of 2)See 25 dividend stocks with recent payout hikes, including top picks, fair value upside, yield, and risk flags.
Why BFC Stock advanced +1.85% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$150.62 +1.85% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $150.84
Bank First Corporation (BFC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.67B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $150.83 (+0.14%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BFC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BFC SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$145.41+1.6% Next Q
47
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$147.70-0.2% Next Q
50
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$147.34+2.2% Next Q
52
CurrentGrade D+$150.62-0.5% Hist 90D α
55
Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BFC Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, BFC faces multiple-compression risk if 23.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($150.40) or 200D SMA ($145.12) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($148.59) toward Bear Floor ($115.90).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BFC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BFC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why BFC Stock advanced +1.85% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Bank First Corporation (BFC) advanced +1.85% to $150.62, trading at 79% of its 52-week range ($119.08 – $159.1). Stretched risk/reward at 23x P/E (11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 79% of its 52-week range ($119.08 – $159.1) with RSI-14 at 51 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.7% around $150.62 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $51.0M annual free cash flow.
Live BFC Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 8d ago
Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week October 25Get a weekly summary of dividend activity for Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers, including dividend changes and key ex-dividend dates.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
Bank First (BFC) Stock And Q3 Earnings Face A Margin SqueezeBank First stock took a hit ahead of the open, with shares down about 4% from the previous close as traders reacted to fresh Q3 2026 numbers. The headline story is not the income statement; it is the pressure building on
MARKET WIREYahoo • 12d ago
Bank First Corporation (BFC) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Lag EstimatesBank First Corporation (BFC) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -10.65% and -0.87%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
CATALYSTYahoo • 12d ago
Bank First Corporation: Q3 Earnings Snapshot(AP) — Bank First Corporation (BFC) on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit of $23.The Manitowoc, Wisconsin-based bank said it had earnings of $2.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 12d ago
Bank First Announces Net Income for the Third Quarter of 2026Bank First Corporation (NASDAQ: BFC) ("Bank First" or the "Bank"), the holding company for Bank First, N.A., reported net income of $23.8 million, or $2.15 per share, for the third quarter of 2026 ("26Q3"), compared with
RISK WATCHBenzinga • 12d ago
Bank First Q3 Adj. EPS $2.35 Misses $2.63 Estimate, Sales $65.300M Miss $66.300M EstimateBank First (NASDAQ:BFC) reported quarterly earnings of $2.35 per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $2.63 by 10.65 percent. This is a 23.04 percent increase over earnings of $1.91 per share from the
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BFC)
- ✓Walkthrough of BFC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.65%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $151.7H $151.7L $148.8C $150.6VOL 87.0K
RES: $167.1SUP: $126.5SMA50: $150.4SMA200: $145.1
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
BFC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
17.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BFC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BFC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BFC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BFC)
Financials Rank #699 of 1096
⚔️ NBHC vs BFC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BFC vs. NBHC, QCRH, TCBK, LOB)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bank First Corporation (BFC) ranks #699 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #466 by equity capitalization ($1.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, QCRH leads on earnings valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E, while QCRH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. NBHC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with BFC at 55/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC
ACTIVE
Bank First Corporation | D+ | 55/100 | 23.4x | — | 11.1% | +1.85% | $1.67B | Benchmark Subject |
| NBHC National Bank Holdings Corporation | B | 72/100 | 15.3x | — | 7.9% | +0.21% | $1.67B | /nbhc-vs-bfc → |
| QCRH QCR Holdings Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 13.2x | — | 11.4% | +1.37% | $1.68B | /qcrh-vs-bfc → |
| TCBK TriCo Bancshares | C | 65/100 | 14.1x | — | 9.2% | +0.87% | $1.71B | /tcbk-vs-bfc → |
| LOB Live Oak Bancshares Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 15.3x | — | 8.5% | +1.18% | $1.62B | /lob-vs-bfc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001746109In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bank First Corporation (BFC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $71.5M, operating cash flow of $62.5M, and free cash flow of $51.0M (-12.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, BFC closed FY2025 with $4.51B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $71.5M | $62.5M | $51.0M | $4.51B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $65.6M | $65.8M | $58.6M | $4.50B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $74.5M | $52.9M | $52.9M | — | — |
3. BFC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs BFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Bank First Corporation (NASDAQ: BFC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $150.62 (+1.85% 1D, market cap $1.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BFC ranks #699 in composite RQD confidence.
How does BFC compare to NBHC and QCRH in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BFC carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, NBHC (National Bank Holdings Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 7.9%, cap $1.67B) and QCRH (QCR Holdings Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $1.68B). Among the 5-stock peer group, QCRH leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while QCRH leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BFC?
Per BFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001746109), Bank First Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $71.5M in net income, and $51.0M in free cash flow against $4.51B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is BFC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
BFC last traded at $150.62 (+1.85% on volume of 129,822 shares), positioning the stock +0.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($150.40) and +3.79% above its 200-day simple moving average ($145.12). Across its 52-week range of $119.08 to $159.10, BFC sits at the 78.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($142.03 to $159.21).
BFC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is BFC stock moving today?
Why BFC Stock advanced +1.85% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 23x P/E (11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.