Stock Ratings / Health Care / AYTU / earnings

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Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.5% Move

$1.98 +0.51% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.98

Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $21.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.98 (-0.10%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AYTU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AYTU SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$2.03+0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.04-6.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$1.90+4.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$1.98-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AYTU Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AYTU currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.10) and Max Pain ($2.08) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.22.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AYTU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AYTU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 28, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.5% Swing Band

±$0.19 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AYTU Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 41/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 1.8%

Model Bullish Setup (41/100)Model Risk Weight (59/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-06-30	$66.4M	-$13.6M	-$2.2M	69%
FY 2024	2024-06-30	$65.2M	-$15.8M	-$1.7M	75.3%
FY 2023	2023-06-30	$107.4M	-$17.1M	-$5.1M	69%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AYTU)

✓Walkthrough of AYTU's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AYTU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.26%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $1.98H $2.02L $1.90C $1.98VOL 97.3K

RES: $2.25SUP: $1.79SMA50: $2.10SMA200: $2.32

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AYTU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AYTU Butterfly Map → + Track AYTU →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AYTU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AYTU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AYTU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AYTU)

Health Care Rank #623 of 1016 ⚔️ BYSI vs AYTU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AYTU vs. BYSI, TXMD, ATOS, QNTM)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) ranks #623 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #826 by equity capitalization ($21.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AYTU leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TXMD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.9% ROIC and — gross margin. QNTM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with AYTU at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AYTU ACTIVE Aytu BioPharma Inc.	D-	41/100	—	69.0%	-35.0%	+0.51%	$21.5M	Benchmark Subject
BYSI BeyondSpring Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.49%	$21.2M	/bysi-vs-aytu →
TXMD TherapeuticsMD Inc.	D	48/100	—	—	-12.9%	+2.24%	$21.2M	/txmd-vs-aytu →
ATOS Atossa Therapeutics Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-35.0%	-5.91%	$22.3M	/atos-vs-aytu →
QNTM Quantum Biopharma Ltd. Class B Subordinate Voting Shares	D+	58/100	—	—	—	+2.95%	$20.7M	/qntm-vs-aytu →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001385818

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU) reported GAAP revenue of $66.4M (+1.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $65.2M , and -38.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$13.6M, operating cash flow of -$1.9M, and free cash flow of -$2.2M (-26.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AYTU closed FY2025 with $122.0M in total assets against $10.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$66.4M	-$13.6M	-$1.9M	-$2.2M	$122.0M	$10.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$65.2M	-$15.8M	-$1.4M	-$1.7M	$116.2M	$10.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$107.4M	-$17.1M	-$5.1M	-$5.1M	—	—

3. AYTU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AYTU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Aytu BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AYTU) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $1.98 (+0.51% 1D, market cap $21.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AYTU ranks #623 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AYTU compare to BYSI and TXMD in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AYTU carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 69.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BYSI (BeyondSpring Inc.) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $21.2M) and TXMD (TherapeuticsMD Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.9%, cap $21.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AYTU leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TXMD leads on capital efficiency (-12.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AYTU?

Per AYTU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001385818), Aytu BioPharma Inc. generated $66.4M in revenue (+1.8% YoY), -$13.6M in net income, and -$2.2M in free cash flow against $122.0M in total assets and $10.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AYTU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AYTU last traded at $1.98 (+0.51% on volume of 9,467 shares), positioning the stock -5.71% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.10) and -14.66% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.32). Across its 52-week range of $1.80 to $3.07, AYTU sits at the 14.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($1.79 to $2.17).

AYTU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AYTU's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Aytu BioPharma Inc. (AYTU)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 28, 2026.

How much is AYTU stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±9.5% event move for AYTU, spanning a range between $1.79 and $2.17.

Direct Sub-Reports: AYTU RQD Cockpit AYTU 12M Forecast AYTU Earnings & Move AYTU Dividends & DRIP AYTU Insiders & 13F AYTU Whale Options AYTU Profit Sankey AYTU News & Why