MARKET WIREBenzinga • 6d ago
JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Ategrity Specialty, Lowers Price Target to $27JP Morgan analyst Pablo Singzon maintains Ategrity Specialty (NYSE:ASIC) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $29 to $27.
Why ASIC Stock surged +5.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$24.40 +5.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.58
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (ASIC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.17B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.58 (+0.72%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 33.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASIC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ASIC SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 63% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 40 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B+$25.93+5.1% Next Q
77
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B+$27.25-11.5% Next Q
74
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B$24.11+1.2% Next Q
72
CurrentGrade C+$24.40+2% Hist 90D α
69
Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ASIC Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, ASIC faces multiple-compression risk if 15.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($26.37) or 200D SMA ($22.37) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.61) toward Bear Floor ($19.98).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASIC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ASIC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ASIC Stock surged +5.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (ASIC) surged +5.08% to $24.40, trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($16.73 – $29). Solid steady margins (12% return on capital), mixed timing at 16x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($16.73 – $29) with RSI-14 at 40 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.3% around $24.40 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $140.7M annual free cash flow.
Live ASIC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 7d ago
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (ASIC) Could Be 20% Below Fair Value On Q3 ResultsAtegrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (ASIC) just posted its third quarter and nine month 2026 results, giving investors fresh detail on revenue, earnings and how the specialty insurer’s business is tracking. The
RISK WATCHYahoo • 8d ago
Is Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (ASIC) A Bargain After Its Q3 Miss?Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings has delivered a 27.3% gain over the past year, even after a recent pullback, which puts fresh focus on whether that share price is aligned with the returns the business earns
RISK WATCHYahoo • 10d ago
Ategrity Sinks 15% as Earnings Miss Overshadows “Exceptional Quarter of Underwriting”Key TakeawaysAtegrity shares fell 15% today after third-quarter earnings of $0. 29 a share came in well short of analysts’ estimates.
CATALYSTBenzinga • 10d ago
Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Ategrity Specialty, Raises Price Target to $29Citigroup analyst Matthew Herrmann maintains Ategrity Specialty (NYSE:ASIC) with a Neutral and raises the price target from $28.5 to $29.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 10d ago
Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ategrity Specialty, Lowers Price Target to $27Barclays analyst Alex Scott maintains Ategrity Specialty (NYSE:ASIC) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $28 to $27.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 10d ago
Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Ategrity Specialty, Lowers Price Target to $29Wells Fargo analyst Elyse Greenspan maintains Ategrity Specialty (NYSE:ASIC) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $31 to $29.
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
Ategrity (ASIC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptRecord combined ratio of 84.7% and 30% submission growth signal strong underwriting momentum.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC Q3 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC's Q3 2026 earnings call
MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
What Ategrity Specialty (ASIC) Said on Its Q3 Earnings CallAtegrity Specialty (NYSE:ASIC) reported third-quarter underwriting income growth of 83.7% and its lowest combined ratio to date, as the specialty insurer cited favorable loss experience, lower expense ratios and continue
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ASIC Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ASIC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.42%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $24.72H $24.72L $23.67C $24.40VOL 86.4K
RES: $30.98SUP: $22.96SMA50: $26.37SMA200: $22.37
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ASIC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +23.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASIC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASIC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASIC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASIC)
Financials Rank #184 of 1096
⚔️ BOW vs ASIC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ASIC vs. BOW, HRTG, IGIC, UVE)
Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (ASIC) ranks #184 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #524 by equity capitalization ($1.17B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HRTG leads on earnings valuation at 5.5x trailing P/E, while HRTG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HRTG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with ASIC at 69/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASIC
ACTIVE
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings | C+ | 69/100 | 15.8x | — | 12.0% | +5.08% | $1.17B | Benchmark Subject |
| BOW Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. | C | 62/100 | 20.9x | — | 12.0% | -0.23% | $1.12B | /bow-vs-asic → |
| HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. | B+ | 79/100 | 5.5x | — | 85.0% | +4.06% | $1.07B | /hrtg-vs-asic → |
| IGIC International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Share | D+ | 58/100 | 8.3x | — | 17.9% | +1.69% | $1.06B | /igic-vs-asic → |
| UVE UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC | B | 74/100 | 7.2x | — | 33.2% | +3.44% | $1.32B | /uve-vs-asic → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002040491In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (ASIC) reported GAAP revenue of $424.3M (+23.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $343.8M ) , GAAP net income of $74.0M, operating cash flow of $147.2M, and free cash flow of $140.7M (+12.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASIC closed FY2025 with $1.47B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $424.3M | $74.0M | $147.2M | $140.7M | $1.47B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $343.8M | $47.1M | $125.6M | $125.4M | $1.12B | — |
3. ASIC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ASIC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (NYSE: ASIC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $24.40 (+5.08% 1D, market cap $1.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ASIC ranks #184 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ASIC compare to BOW and HRTG in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), ASIC carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, BOW (Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 20.9x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $1.12B) and HRTG (Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 5.5x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HRTG leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while HRTG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASIC?
Per ASIC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002040491), Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings generated $424.3M in revenue (+23.4% YoY), $74.0M in net income, and $140.7M in free cash flow against $1.47B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ASIC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ASIC last traded at $24.40 (+5.08% on volume of 128,206 shares), positioning the stock -7.47% below its 50-day simple moving average ($26.37) and +9.07% above its 200-day simple moving average ($22.37). Across its 52-week range of $16.73 to $29.00, ASIC sits at the 62.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($22.37 to $26.43).
ASIC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ASIC stock moving today?
Why ASIC Stock surged +5.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (12% return on capital), mixed timing at 16x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.