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Arq Inc. (ARQ) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$1.77 -4.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.75

Arq Inc. (ARQ) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $77.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.75 (-0.97%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARQ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARQ SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (34% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$2.03-11.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$1.79-2.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$1.75+1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$1.77-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARQ Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARQ currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.02) and Max Pain ($1.86) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.07.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARQ• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARQ Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

39.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE4% OF RANGE

L: $2$1.77H: $7

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on ARQ

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (35)

-24.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -3.53% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (40)

10/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ARQ

✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARQ)

✓Walkthrough of ARQ's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARQ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.03%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $1.78H $1.79L $1.70C $1.77VOL 281.3K

RES: $1.95SUP: $1.64SMA50: $2.02SMA200: $2.48

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARQ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARQ Butterfly Map → + Track ARQ →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARQ today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARQ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARQ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARQ)

Materials Rank #214 of 270 ⚔️ FSI vs ARQ Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ARQ vs. FSI, LNZA, AMTX, CITR)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arq Inc. (ARQ) ranks #214 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #236 by equity capitalization ($77.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FSI leads on earnings valuation at 101.5x trailing P/E, while FSI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.5% ROIC and 32.6% gross margin. FSI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with ARQ at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARQ ACTIVE Arq Inc.	D-	41/100	—	—	-24.6%	-4.32%	$77.3M	Benchmark Subject
FSI Flexible Solutions International Inc. (CDA)	D	48/100	101.5x	32.6%	8.5%	-3.40%	$79.8M	/fsi-vs-arq →
LNZA LanzaTech Global Inc.	D-	41/100	—	—	-35.0%	+7.72%	$73.0M	/lnza-vs-arq →
AMTX Aemetis Inc.	E	34/100	—	-0.4%	-35.0%	-0.77%	$93.1M	/amtx-vs-arq →
CITR CitroTech Inc.	E	21/100	—	22.3%	-35.0%	-5.97%	$62.9M	/citr-vs-arq →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001515156

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arq Inc. (ARQ) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$52.6M, operating cash flow of -$2.7M, and free cash flow of -$2.7M (-126.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARQ closed FY2025 with $231.0M in total assets against $8.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$52.6M	-$2.7M	-$2.7M	$231.0M	$8.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$5.1M	$10.5M	$10.5M	$284.4M	$9.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$12.2M	-$16.7M	-$16.7M	—	—

3. ARQ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Arq Inc. (NASDAQ: ARQ) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $1.77 (-4.32% 1D, market cap $77.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ARQ ranks #214 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARQ compare to FSI and LNZA in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), ARQ carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -24.6%. By comparison, FSI (Flexible Solutions International Inc. (CDA)) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 101.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $79.8M) and LNZA (LanzaTech Global Inc.) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $73.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FSI leads on earnings multiple (101.5x) while FSI leads on capital efficiency (8.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARQ?

Per ARQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001515156), Arq Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$52.6M in net income, and -$2.7M in free cash flow against $231.0M in total assets and $8.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARQ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARQ last traded at $1.77 (-4.32% on volume of 221,278 shares), positioning the stock -12.38% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.02) and -28.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.48). Across its 52-week range of $1.54 to $6.73, ARQ sits at the 4.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($1.57 to $1.97).

ARQ Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ARQ stock right now?

Arq Inc. (ARQ) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 41/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-25% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ARQ's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ARQ's 12-month base price target is $1.63 (range $1.27 to $7.07), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARQ RQD Cockpit ARQ 12M Forecast ARQ Earnings & Move ARQ Dividends & DRIP ARQ Insiders & 13F ARQ Whale Options ARQ Profit Sankey ARQ News & Why