MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why ARL Stock surged +2.17% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$17.89 +2.17% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.93
American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $289.0M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.93 (+0.20%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARL SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (31% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.4% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$16.45+0.7% Next Q
31
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$16.56-1.6% Next Q
34
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$16.30+9.8% Next Q
36
CurrentGrade D-$17.89-7.6% Hist 90D α
39
Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARL Turnaround Squeeze
While ARL currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.08) and Max Pain ($18.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.66.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ARL Stock surged +2.17% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) surged +2.17% to $17.89, trading at 46% of its 52-week range ($12.42 – $24.44). Stretched risk/reward at 18x P/E (-1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 46% of its 52-week range ($12.42 – $24.44) with RSI-14 at 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.4% around $17.89 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live ARL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARL)
- ✓Walkthrough of ARL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ARL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +26.34%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $17.75H $18.45L $17.75C $17.89VOL 3.6K
RES: $19.96SUP: $14.60SMA50: $16.08SMA200: $15.98
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ARL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +5.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARL)
Financials Rank #993 of 1096
⚔️ MLP vs ARL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARL vs. MLP, OPI, REAX, FRPH)
Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) ranks #993 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #818 by equity capitalization ($289.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARL leads on earnings valuation at 18.4x trailing P/E, while FRPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.3% ROIC and — gross margin. REAX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 51/100 (D) compared with ARL at 39/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARL
ACTIVE
American Realty Investors Inc. | D- | 39/100 | 18.4x | — | -0.8% | +2.17% | $289.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| MLP Maui Land & Pineapple Company Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | — | -12.9% | +0.56% | $285.8M | /mlp-vs-arl → |
| OPI Office Properties Income Trust of | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -30.9% | +2.62% | $301.4M | /opi-vs-arl → |
| REAX Real REMAX Group Inc. | D | 51/100 | — | — | — | -0.41% | $316.7M | /reax-vs-arl → |
| FRPH FRP Holdings Inc. | D- | 43/100 | 114.6x | — | 1.3% | +1.88% | $363.6M | /frph-vs-arl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001102238In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) reported GAAP revenue of $50.0M (+5.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $47.3M , and -1.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $15.7M, operating cash flow of -$5.6M, and free cash flow of -$5.6M (-609.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARL closed FY2025 with $1.10B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $50.0M | $15.7M | -$5.6M | -$5.6M | $1.10B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $47.3M | -$14.7M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.03B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $50.5M | $4.0M | -$31.1M | -$31.1M | — | — |
3. ARL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ARL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, American Realty Investors Inc. (NYSE: ARL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $17.89 (+2.17% 1D, market cap $289.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ARL ranks #993 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ARL compare to MLP and OPI in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), ARL carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.8%. By comparison, MLP (Maui Land & Pineapple Company Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.9%, cap $285.8M) and OPI (Office Properties Income Trust of) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.9%, cap $301.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARL leads on earnings multiple (18.4x) while FRPH leads on capital efficiency (1.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARL?
Per ARL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001102238), American Realty Investors Inc. generated $50.0M in revenue (+5.7% YoY), $15.7M in net income, and -$5.6M in free cash flow against $1.10B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ARL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ARL last traded at $17.89 (+2.17% on volume of 2,315 shares), positioning the stock +11.26% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.08) and +11.95% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.98). Across its 52-week range of $12.42 to $24.44, ARL sits at the 45.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($16.57 to $19.21).
ARL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ARL stock moving today?
Why ARL Stock surged +2.17% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 18x P/E (-1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.