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American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$17.89 +2.17% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.93

American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $289.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.93 (+0.20%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARL SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$16.45+0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$16.56-1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$16.30+9.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$17.89-7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARL currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.08) and Max Pain ($18.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.66.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

ARL Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (ARL)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on ARL. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARL)

✓Walkthrough of ARL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +26.34%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $17.75H $18.45L $17.75C $17.89VOL 3.6K

RES: $19.96SUP: $14.60SMA50: $16.08SMA200: $15.98

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARL Butterfly Map → + Track ARL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARL)

Financials Rank #993 of 1096 ⚔️ MLP vs ARL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARL vs. MLP, OPI, REAX, FRPH)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) ranks #993 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #818 by equity capitalization ($289.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARL leads on earnings valuation at 18.4x trailing P/E, while FRPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.3% ROIC and — gross margin. REAX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 51/100 (D) compared with ARL at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARL ACTIVE American Realty Investors Inc.	D-	39/100	18.4x	—	-0.8%	+2.17%	$289.0M	Benchmark Subject
MLP Maui Land & Pineapple Company Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-12.9%	+0.56%	$285.8M	/mlp-vs-arl →
OPI Office Properties Income Trust of	D-	35/100	—	—	-30.9%	+2.62%	$301.4M	/opi-vs-arl →
REAX Real REMAX Group Inc.	D	51/100	—	—	—	-0.41%	$316.7M	/reax-vs-arl →
FRPH FRP Holdings Inc.	D-	43/100	114.6x	—	1.3%	+1.88%	$363.6M	/frph-vs-arl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001102238

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) reported GAAP revenue of $50.0M (+5.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $47.3M , and -1.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $15.7M, operating cash flow of -$5.6M, and free cash flow of -$5.6M (-609.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARL closed FY2025 with $1.10B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$50.0M	$15.7M	-$5.6M	-$5.6M	$1.10B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$47.3M	-$14.7M	$1.1M	$1.1M	$1.03B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$50.5M	$4.0M	-$31.1M	-$31.1M	—	—

3. ARL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, American Realty Investors Inc. (NYSE: ARL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $17.89 (+2.17% 1D, market cap $289.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ARL ranks #993 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARL compare to MLP and OPI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), ARL carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.8%. By comparison, MLP (Maui Land & Pineapple Company Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.9%, cap $285.8M) and OPI (Office Properties Income Trust of) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.9%, cap $301.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARL leads on earnings multiple (18.4x) while FRPH leads on capital efficiency (1.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARL?

Per ARL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001102238), American Realty Investors Inc. generated $50.0M in revenue (+5.7% YoY), $15.7M in net income, and -$5.6M in free cash flow against $1.10B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARL last traded at $17.89 (+2.17% on volume of 2,315 shares), positioning the stock +11.26% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.08) and +11.95% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.98). Across its 52-week range of $12.42 to $24.44, ARL sits at the 45.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($16.57 to $19.21).

ARL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are ARL insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies ARL leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARL RQD Cockpit ARL 12M Forecast ARL Earnings & Move ARL Dividends & DRIP ARL Insiders & 13F ARL Whale Options ARL Profit Sankey ARL News & Why