MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why ARDT Stock surged +3.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.30 +3.10% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.35
Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.73B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.35 (+0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 7.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARDT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARDT SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.4% FCF Margin ($470.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$11.30+5.8% Next Q
59
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$11.95+2.7% Next Q
62
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$12.27+0.2% Next Q
64
CurrentGrade C+$12.30+1.6% Hist 90D α
67
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARDT Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, ARDT faces multiple-compression risk if 12.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.16) or 200D SMA ($9.98) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.80) toward Bear Floor ($9.98).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARDT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARDT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ARDT Stock surged +3.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) surged +3.10% to $12.30, trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($7.71 – $14.99). Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 13x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($7.71 – $14.99) with RSI-14 at 57.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8% around $12.30 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $470.5M annual free cash flow.
Live ARDT Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ARDT Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
ARDT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +26.02%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $12.43H $12.43L $11.96C $12.30VOL 380.3K
RES: $12.73SUP: $9.88SMA50: $11.16SMA200: $9.98
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ARDT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARDT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARDT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARDT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARDT)
Health Care Rank #119 of 1016
⚔️ HCSG vs ARDT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ARDT vs. HCSG, SNDA, MD, BKD)
Industry: Hospital/Nursing Management (14 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) ranks #119 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #283 by equity capitalization ($1.73B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARDT leads on earnings valuation at 12.8x trailing P/E, while MD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with ARDT at 67/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARDT
ACTIVE
Ardent Health Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 12.8x | — | 10.5% | +3.10% | $1.73B | Benchmark Subject |
| HCSG Healthcare Services Group Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 28.2x | 13.0% | 11.6% | +2.58% | $1.66B | /hcsg-vs-ardt → |
| SNDA Sonida Senior Living Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | — | — | +1.94% | $1.65B | /snda-vs-ardt → |
| MD Pediatrix Medical Group Inc. | B | 74/100 | 14.3x | — | 33.6% | +0.93% | $2.37B | /md-vs-ardt → |
| BKD Brookdale Senior Living Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | 26.2% | 0.3% | +2.91% | $2.45B | /bkd-vs-ardt → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001756655In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) reported GAAP revenue of $6.32B (+6.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.97B , and +16.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $135.8M, operating cash flow of $470.5M, and free cash flow of $470.5M (+49.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARDT closed FY2025 with $5.29B in total assets against $1.08B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $6.32B | $135.8M | $470.5M | $470.5M | $5.29B | $1.08B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $5.97B | $210.3M | $315.0M | $315.0M | $4.96B | $1.09B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $5.41B | $53.9M | $221.7M | $221.7M | — | — |
3. ARDT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ARDT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Ardent Health Inc. (NYSE: ARDT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $12.30 (+3.10% 1D, market cap $1.73B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ARDT ranks #119 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ARDT compare to HCSG and SNDA in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Hospital/Nursing Management), ARDT carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, HCSG (Healthcare Services Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 28.2x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $1.66B) and SNDA (Sonida Senior Living Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARDT leads on earnings multiple (12.8x) while MD leads on capital efficiency (33.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARDT?
Per ARDT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756655), Ardent Health Inc. generated $6.32B in revenue (+6.0% YoY), $135.8M in net income, and $470.5M in free cash flow against $5.29B in total assets and $1.08B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ARDT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ARDT last traded at $12.30 (+3.10% on volume of 602,611 shares), positioning the stock +10.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.16) and +23.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.98). Across its 52-week range of $7.71 to $14.99, ARDT sits at the 63.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($11.32 to $13.28).
ARDT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ARDT stock moving today?
Why ARDT Stock surged +3.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 13x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.