Stock Ratings / Health Care / ARDT / earnings

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Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8% Move

$12.30 +3.10% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.35

Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.73B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.35 (+0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 7.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARDT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARDT SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.4% FCF Margin ($470.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$11.30+5.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$11.95+2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$12.27+0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$12.30+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARDT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, ARDT faces multiple-compression risk if 12.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.16) or 200D SMA ($9.98) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.80) toward Bear Floor ($9.98).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARDT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARDT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8% Swing Band

±$0.98 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ARDT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 67/100

Trailing EPS: $0.96 • YoY Revenue Growth: 6%

Model Bullish Setup (67/100)Model Risk Weight (33/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$6.32B	$135.8M	$470.5M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$5.97B	$210.3M	$315.0M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$5.41B	$53.9M	$221.7M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ARDT & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ARDT
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARDT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +26.02%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $12.43H $12.43L $11.96C $12.30VOL 380.3K

RES: $12.73SUP: $9.88SMA50: $11.16SMA200: $9.98

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARDT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARDT Butterfly Map → + Track ARDT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARDT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARDT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARDT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARDT)

Health Care Rank #119 of 1016 ⚔️ HCSG vs ARDT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ARDT vs. HCSG, SNDA, MD, BKD)

Industry: Hospital/Nursing Management (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) ranks #119 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #283 by equity capitalization ($1.73B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARDT leads on earnings valuation at 12.8x trailing P/E, while MD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with ARDT at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARDT ACTIVE Ardent Health Inc.	C+	67/100	12.8x	—	10.5%	+3.10%	$1.73B	Benchmark Subject
HCSG Healthcare Services Group Inc.	B-	70/100	28.2x	13.0%	11.6%	+2.58%	$1.66B	/hcsg-vs-ardt →
SNDA Sonida Senior Living Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	—	+1.94%	$1.65B	/snda-vs-ardt →
MD Pediatrix Medical Group Inc.	B	74/100	14.3x	—	33.6%	+0.93%	$2.37B	/md-vs-ardt →
BKD Brookdale Senior Living Inc.	D	46/100	—	26.2%	0.3%	+2.91%	$2.45B	/bkd-vs-ardt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001756655

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT) reported GAAP revenue of $6.32B (+6.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.97B , and +16.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $135.8M, operating cash flow of $470.5M, and free cash flow of $470.5M (+49.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARDT closed FY2025 with $5.29B in total assets against $1.08B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$6.32B	$135.8M	$470.5M	$470.5M	$5.29B	$1.08B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$5.97B	$210.3M	$315.0M	$315.0M	$4.96B	$1.09B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$5.41B	$53.9M	$221.7M	$221.7M	—	—

3. ARDT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARDT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Ardent Health Inc. (NYSE: ARDT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $12.30 (+3.10% 1D, market cap $1.73B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ARDT ranks #119 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARDT compare to HCSG and SNDA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Hospital/Nursing Management), ARDT carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.5%. By comparison, HCSG (Healthcare Services Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 28.2x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $1.66B) and SNDA (Sonida Senior Living Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARDT leads on earnings multiple (12.8x) while MD leads on capital efficiency (33.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARDT?

Per ARDT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756655), Ardent Health Inc. generated $6.32B in revenue (+6.0% YoY), $135.8M in net income, and $470.5M in free cash flow against $5.29B in total assets and $1.08B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARDT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARDT last traded at $12.30 (+3.10% on volume of 602,611 shares), positioning the stock +10.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.16) and +23.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.98). Across its 52-week range of $7.71 to $14.99, ARDT sits at the 63.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($11.32 to $13.28).

ARDT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ARDT's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Ardent Health Inc. (ARDT)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ARDT stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±8% event move for ARDT, spanning a range between $11.32 and $13.28.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARDT RQD Cockpit ARDT 12M Forecast ARDT Earnings & Move ARDT Dividends & DRIP ARDT Insiders & 13F ARDT Whale Options ARDT Profit Sankey ARDT News & Why