MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why API Stock slipped -0.22% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$4.45 -0.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.44
Agora Inc. (API) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $372.8M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.44 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 18.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for API)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY API SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 56% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (20% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.9% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$4.08+6.6% Next Q
51
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$4.35+2.3% Next Q
54
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$4.45+0% Next Q
56
CurrentGrade C-$4.45+0.2% Hist 90D α
59
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the API Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, API faces multiple-compression risk if 39.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Priced at 39x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.22) or 200D SMA ($4.15) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.47) toward Bear Floor ($3.49).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $API• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “API Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why API Stock slipped -0.22% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Agora Inc. (API) slipped -0.22% to $4.45, trading at 56% of its 52-week range ($3.14 – $5.5). Solid 66% profit margin (-2% return on capital), mixed timing at 39x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 56% of its 52-week range ($3.14 – $5.5) with RSI-14 at 53.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.9% around $4.45 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 66.4% gross margin and $25.5M annual free cash flow.
Live API Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 6h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (API Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
API // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +25.71%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $4.39H $4.45L $4.30C $4.45VOL 156.7K
RES: $4.54SUP: $4.02SMA50: $4.22SMA200: $4.15
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
API Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
29.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +5.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on API today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for API. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for API today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (API)
Technology Rank #267 of 714
⚔️ CRNC vs API Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (API vs. CRNC, LAW, MTLS, MKTW)
Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Agora Inc. (API) ranks #267 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #431 by equity capitalization ($372.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, API leads on earnings valuation at 39.1x trailing P/E, while MKTW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 86.5% gross margin. API currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API
ACTIVE
Agora Inc. | C- | 59/100 | 39.1x | 66.4% | -1.5% | -0.22% | $372.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| CRNC Cerence Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | 72.7% | -0.6% | -3.42% | $370.4M | /crnc-vs-api → |
| LAW CS Disco Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | 74.9% | -35.0% | +0.95% | $344.1M | /law-vs-api → |
| MTLS Materialise NV | C- | 59/100 | — | — | — | +6.79% | $427.6M | /mtls-vs-api → |
| MKTW MarketWise Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 58/100 | 56.1x | 86.5% | 85.0% | -1.04% | $315.0M | /mktw-vs-api → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001802883In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Agora Inc. (API) reported GAAP revenue of $141.1M (+5.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $133.3M , and -0.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $9.5M, operating cash flow of $27.2M, and free cash flow of $25.5M (+253.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, API closed FY2025 with $721.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.98, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $141.1M | $9.5M | $27.2M | $25.5M | $721.1M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $133.3M | -$42.7M | -$14.1M | -$16.7M | $699.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $141.5M | -$87.2M | -$13.6M | -$13.6M | — | — |
3. API Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs API stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Agora Inc. (NASDAQ: API) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $4.45 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $372.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, API ranks #267 in composite RQD confidence.
How does API compare to CRNC and LAW in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), API carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 39.1x, gross margin of 66.4%, and ROIC of -1.5%. By comparison, CRNC (Cerence Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.6%, cap $370.4M) and LAW (CS Disco Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $344.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, API leads on earnings multiple (39.1x) while MKTW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for API?
Per API's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001802883), Agora Inc. generated $141.1M in revenue (+5.9% YoY), $9.5M in net income, and $25.5M in free cash flow against $721.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 39x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is API trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
API last traded at $4.45 (-0.22% on volume of 75,856 shares), positioning the stock +5.45% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.22) and +7.23% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.15). Across its 52-week range of $3.14 to $5.50, API sits at the 55.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($4.10 to $4.80).
API Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is API stock moving today?
Why API Stock slipped -0.22% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 66% profit margin (-2% return on capital), mixed timing at 39x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.