MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why AP Stock dropped -2.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$8.44 -2.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.38
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $174.4M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.38 (-0.67%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AP SCORES 21/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (29% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 60% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 40 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+5/20 pts (24% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.1% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$9.25-10.7% Next Q
29
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$8.26-5% Next Q
26
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$7.85+7.5% Next Q
24
CurrentGrade E$8.44-11.6% Hist 90D α
21
Trajectory: E (29) → E (21)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AP Turnaround Squeeze
While AP currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.60) and Max Pain ($8.86) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $13.45.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AP Stock dropped -2.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) dropped -2.65% to $8.44, trading at 60% of its 52-week range ($1.75 – $12.81). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 60% of its 52-week range ($1.75 – $12.81) with RSI-14 at 40 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.1% around $8.44 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AP Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 5h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AP)
- ✓Walkthrough of AP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.71%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-10-30O $8.21H $8.44L $7.58C $8.44VOL 76.6K
RES: $9.69SUP: $7.42SMA50: $8.60SMA200: $8.76
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AP today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AP)
Industrials Rank #483 of 485
⚔️ GRC vs AP Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AP vs. GRC, FLS, GGG, IEX)
Industry: Fluid Controls (7 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) ranks #483 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #355 by equity capitalization ($174.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GGG leads on earnings valuation at 21.1x trailing P/E, while GGG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.3% ROIC and 52.5% gross margin. IEX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with AP at 21/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AP
ACTIVE
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation | E | 21/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -2.65% | $174.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| GRC Gorman-Rupp Company | B | 73/100 | 37.1x | 30.6% | 11.3% | -0.61% | $1.96B | /grc-vs-ap → |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | B- | 70/100 | 29.4x | 33.4% | 10.7% | +11.89% | $10.19B | /fls-vs-ap → |
| GGG Graco Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 21.1x | 52.5% | 24.3% | +2.37% | $11.03B | /ggg-vs-ap → |
| IEX IDEX Corporation | B | 75/100 | 36.4x | 44.5% | 10.5% | +0.33% | $17.58B | /iex-vs-ap → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000006176In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP) reported GAAP revenue of $416.3M (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $402.8M , and +0.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$66.1M, operating cash flow of $1.3M, and free cash flow of -$8.1M (-238.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, AP closed FY2025 with $495.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.58, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $416.3M | -$66.1M | $1.3M | -$8.1M | $495.4M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $402.8M | $438.0K | $18.0M | $5.8M | $530.9M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $415.3M | -$39.9M | -$3.7M | -$3.7M | — | — |
3. AP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (NYSE: AP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $8.44 (-2.65% 1D, market cap $174.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AP ranks #483 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AP compare to GRC and FLS in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Fluid Controls), AP carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GRC (Gorman-Rupp Company) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 37.1x, ROIC 11.3%, cap $1.96B) and FLS (Flowserve Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 29.4x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $10.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GGG leads on earnings multiple (21.1x) while GGG leads on capital efficiency (24.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AP?
Per AP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000006176), Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation generated $416.3M in revenue (+3.3% YoY), -$66.1M in net income, and -$8.1M in free cash flow against $495.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AP last traded at $8.44 (-2.65% on volume of 67,885 shares), positioning the stock -1.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.60) and -3.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.76). Across its 52-week range of $1.75 to $12.81, AP sits at the 60.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.1% ($7.42 to $9.46).
AP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AP stock moving today?
Why AP Stock dropped -2.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.