Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / AOUT / forecast

ESCA (79) CLAR (37) BBW (83) JAKK (33) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$18.35 +1.52% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.37

American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $231.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.36 (+0.08%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AOUT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AOUT SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 64.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.2% FCF Margin ($4.3M FCF) & 44.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$16.50+9.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$18.06-3.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$17.35+5.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$18.35-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AOUT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, AOUT faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.46) or 200D SMA ($11.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($18.10) toward Bear Floor ($14.12).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AOUT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AOUT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AOUT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $18.35: 545.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $14.12

$7,695

$-2,305 (-23.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $18.10

$9,864

$-136 (-1.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $21.36

$11,640

+$1,640 (+16.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$19	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$20	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$16	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AOUT)

✓Walkthrough of AOUT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AOUT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +95.01%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $18.24H $18.47L $17.89C $18.35VOL 160.3K

RES: $18.98SUP: $10.42SMA50: $15.46SMA200: $11.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AOUT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AOUT Butterfly Map → + Track AOUT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -14.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AOUT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AOUT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AOUT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AOUT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #548 of 1011 ⚔️ ESCA vs AOUT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AOUT vs. ESCA, CLAR, BBW, JAKK)

Industry: Recreational Games/Products/Toys (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) ranks #548 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #676 by equity capitalization ($231.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BBW leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while BBW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.7% ROIC and 55.8% gross margin. BBW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 83/100 (A-) compared with AOUT at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AOUT ACTIVE American Outdoor Brands Inc.	D+	55/100	—	44.7%	-4.6%	+1.52%	$231.6M	Benchmark Subject
ESCA Escalade Incorporated	B+	79/100	20.2x	26.9%	8.0%	+8.63%	$277.2M	/esca-vs-aout →
CLAR Clarus Corporation	D-	37/100	—	33.1%	-29.5%	+4.42%	$171.9M	/clar-vs-aout →
BBW Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc.	A-	83/100	6.5x	55.8%	33.7%	+9.18%	$338.5M	/bbw-vs-aout →
JAKK JAKKS Pacific Inc.	E	33/100	—	96.0%	5.7%	-0.62%	$372.0M	/jakk-vs-aout →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-04-30 • CIK 0001808997

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30), American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) reported GAAP revenue of $190.5M (-14.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $222.3M , and -5.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$9.2M, operating cash flow of $6.3M, and free cash flow of $4.3M (+338.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AOUT closed FY2025 with $225.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.23, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-04-30	$190.5M	-$9.2M	$6.3M	$4.3M	$225.0M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-04-30	$222.3M	-$77.0K	$1.4M	-$1.8M	$245.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-04-30	$201.1M	-$12.2M	$24.5M	$24.5M	—	—

3. AOUT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AOUT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, American Outdoor Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: AOUT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $18.35 (+1.52% 1D, market cap $231.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AOUT ranks #548 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AOUT compare to ESCA and CLAR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), AOUT carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 44.7%, and ROIC of -4.6%. By comparison, ESCA (Escalade Incorporated) holds a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $277.2M) and CLAR (Clarus Corporation) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -29.5%, cap $171.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BBW leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while BBW leads on capital efficiency (33.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AOUT?

Per AOUT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001808997), American Outdoor Brands Inc. generated $190.5M in revenue (-14.3% YoY), -$9.2M in net income, and $4.3M in free cash flow against $225.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AOUT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AOUT last traded at $18.35 (+1.52% on volume of 262,512 shares), positioning the stock +18.69% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.46) and +59.15% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.53). Across its 52-week range of $6.26 to $18.48, AOUT sits at the 98.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($16.70 to $20.00).

AOUT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AOUT's 12-month stock price target?

American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $18.1 (-1.4% from $18.35), with a bull-case target of $21.36 and a bear-case floor of $14.12.

Is AOUT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AOUT D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 55/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: AOUT RQD Cockpit AOUT 12M Forecast AOUT Earnings & Move AOUT Dividends & DRIP AOUT Insiders & 13F AOUT Whale Options AOUT Profit Sankey AOUT News & Why