Stock Ratings / Health Care / AMPH / earnings

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Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMPH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.9% Move

$26.93 +2.28% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.11

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMPH) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (50% profit margin, 9% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.15B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.11 (+0.65%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 16.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AMPH SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 80% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 9 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$26.62-2.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$25.87-2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$25.14+7.1% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$26.93+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AMPH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, AMPH faces multiple-compression risk if 11.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 47.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($24.76) or 200D SMA ($22.25) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.51) toward Bear Floor ($22.08).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AMPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.9% Swing Band

±$1.86 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AMPH Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 71/100

Trailing EPS: $2.31 • YoY Revenue Growth: -1.7%

Model Bullish Setup (71/100)Model Risk Weight (29/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$719.9M	$98.1M	$121.2M	49.5%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$732.0M	$159.5M	$172.3M	51.1%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$644.4M	$137.5M	$183.5M	49.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AMPH & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AMPH
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AMPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +22.63%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $27.12H $27.80L $26.76C $26.93VOL 664.5K

RES: $29.94SUP: $25.10SMA50: $24.76SMA200: $22.25

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMPH Butterfly Map → + Track AMPH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMPH)

Health Care Rank #85 of 1016 ⚔️ AVLN vs AMPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AMPH vs. AVLN, RAPP, SPTX, MNKD)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMPH) ranks #85 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #343 by equity capitalization ($1.15B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMPH leads on earnings valuation at 11.7x trailing P/E, while MNKD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 54.5% ROIC and 92.3% gross margin. AMPH currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AMPH ACTIVE Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc.	B-	71/100	11.7x	49.5%	9.0%	+2.28%	$1.15B	Benchmark Subject
AVLN Avalyn Pharma Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-0.12%	$1.14B	/avln-vs-amph →
RAPP Rapport Therapeutics Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-22.9%	+7.60%	$1.16B	/rapp-vs-amph →
SPTX Seaport Therapeutics Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	—	+3.53%	$1.13B	/sptx-vs-amph →
MNKD MannKind Corporation	C	63/100	—	92.3%	54.5%	+2.04%	$1.13B	/mnkd-vs-amph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001297184

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMPH) reported GAAP revenue of $719.9M (-1.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $732.0M , and +11.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $98.1M, operating cash flow of $156.1M, and free cash flow of $121.2M (-29.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMPH closed FY2025 with $1.63B in total assets against $619.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.47, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$719.9M	$98.1M	$156.1M	$121.2M	$1.63B	$619.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$732.0M	$159.5M	$213.4M	$172.3M	$1.58B	$613.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$644.4M	$137.5M	$183.5M	$183.5M	—	—

3. AMPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AMPH) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $26.93 (+2.28% 1D, market cap $1.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AMPH ranks #85 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMPH compare to AVLN and RAPP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AMPH carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.7x, gross margin of 49.5%, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, AVLN (Avalyn Pharma Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.14B) and RAPP (Rapport Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.9%, cap $1.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMPH leads on earnings multiple (11.7x) while MNKD leads on capital efficiency (54.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMPH?

Per AMPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001297184), Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $719.9M in revenue (-1.7% YoY), $98.1M in net income, and $121.2M in free cash flow against $1.63B in total assets and $619.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMPH last traded at $26.93 (+2.28% on volume of 371,432 shares), positioning the stock +8.76% above its 50-day simple moving average ($24.76) and +21.03% above its 200-day simple moving average ($22.25). Across its 52-week range of $16.65 to $29.52, AMPH sits at the 79.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($25.07 to $28.79).

AMPH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AMPH's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMPH)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AMPH stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.9% event move for AMPH, spanning a range between $25.07 and $28.79.

Direct Sub-Reports: AMPH RQD Cockpit AMPH 12M Forecast AMPH Earnings & Move AMPH Dividends & DRIP AMPH Insiders & 13F AMPH Whale Options AMPH Profit Sankey AMPH News & Why