MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why AMBA Stock dropped -2.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$64.58 -2.55% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.16
Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $2.85B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.16 (-0.65%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 18.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMBA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AMBA SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (31% of score)
Altman Z-Score 8.31 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.8% FCF Margin ($73.5M FCF) & 59.2% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$67.43-8.5% Next Q
60
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$61.70+7.8% Next Q
57
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$66.50-2.9% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$64.58-1.1% Hist 90D α
52
Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMBA Turnaround Squeeze
While AMBA currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($66.75) and Max Pain ($67.81) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $101.52.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMBA• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AMBA Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AMBA Stock dropped -2.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) dropped -2.55% to $64.58, trading at 34% of its 52-week range ($48.3 – $96.69). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-16% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 34% of its 52-week range ($48.3 – $96.69) with RSI-14 at 43.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.8% around $64.58 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 59.2% gross margin and $73.5M annual free cash flow.
Live AMBA Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 6h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMBA)
- ✓Walkthrough of AMBA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AMBA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.13%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $61.36H $64.58L $58.32C $64.58VOL 3.27M
RES: $84.36SUP: $56.75SMA50: $66.75SMA200: $67.47
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AMBA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +37.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMBA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMBA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMBA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMBA)
Technology Rank #369 of 714
⚔️ POWI vs AMBA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AMBA vs. POWI, UCTT, IPGP, OSIS)
Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) ranks #369 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #259 by equity capitalization ($2.85B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OSIS leads on earnings valuation at 21.9x trailing P/E, while OSIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and 34.3% gross margin. POWI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with AMBA at 52/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMBA
ACTIVE
Ambarella Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | — | 59.2% | -16.1% | -2.55% | $2.85B | Benchmark Subject |
| POWI Power Integrations Inc. | C | 64/100 | 124.0x | 54.5% | 1.3% | -0.59% | $2.74B | /powi-vs-amba → |
| UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | 15.7% | -9.8% | -2.11% | $2.62B | /uctt-vs-amba → |
| IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation | D- | 36/100 | 103.5x | 38.0% | 0.6% | +0.23% | $3.22B | /ipgp-vs-amba → |
| OSIS OSI Systems Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | 21.9x | 34.3% | 11.4% | +3.74% | $3.27B | /osis-vs-amba → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001280263In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) reported GAAP revenue of $390.7M (+37.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $284.9M , and +72.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$75.9M, operating cash flow of $73.5M, and free cash flow of $73.5M (+117.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMBA closed FY2025 with $798.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.31, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-01-31 | $390.7M | -$75.9M | $73.5M | $73.5M | $798.6M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2025-01-31 | $284.9M | -$117.1M | $33.8M | $33.8M | $689.0M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2024-01-31 | $226.5M | -$169.4M | $19.0M | $19.0M | — | — |
3. AMBA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AMBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Ambarella Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $64.58 (-2.55% 1D, market cap $2.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AMBA ranks #369 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AMBA compare to POWI and UCTT in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AMBA carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.2%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, POWI (Power Integrations Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 124.0x, ROIC 1.3%, cap $2.74B) and UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.8%, cap $2.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OSIS leads on earnings multiple (21.9x) while OSIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBA?
Per AMBA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001280263), Ambarella Inc. generated $390.7M in revenue (+37.2% YoY), -$75.9M in net income, and $73.5M in free cash flow against $798.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AMBA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AMBA last traded at $64.58 (-2.55% on volume of 1,029,790 shares), positioning the stock -3.25% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.75) and -4.28% below its 200-day simple moving average ($67.47). Across its 52-week range of $48.30 to $96.69, AMBA sits at the 33.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($56.96 to $72.20).
AMBA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AMBA stock moving today?
Why AMBA Stock dropped -2.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-16% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.