Stock Ratings / Technology / AMBA / earnings

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Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±11.8% Move

$64.58 -2.55% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.16

Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.85B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AMBA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Ambarella Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $64.58 (-2.55% 1D, market cap $2.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AMBA ranks #369 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMBA compare to POWI and UCTT in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AMBA carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.2%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, POWI (Power Integrations Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 124.0x, ROIC 1.3%, cap $2.74B) and UCTT (Ultra Clean Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.8%, cap $2.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OSIS leads on earnings multiple (21.9x) while OSIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBA?

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Per AMBA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001280263), Ambarella Inc. generated $390.7M in revenue (+37.2% YoY), -$75.9M in net income, and $73.5M in free cash flow against $798.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.16 (-0.65%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 18.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMBA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AMBA SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.31 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.8% FCF Margin ($73.5M FCF) & 59.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$67.43-8.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$61.70+7.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$66.50-2.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$64.58-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMBA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMBA currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($66.75) and Max Pain ($67.81) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $101.52.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMBA• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AMBA Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Jan 30, 2027 (~89 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±11.8% Swing Band

±$7.62 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AMBA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 52/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 37.2%

Model Bullish Setup (52/100)Model Risk Weight (48/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2026-01-31	$390.7M	-$75.9M	$73.5M	59.2%
FY 2024	2025-01-31	$284.9M	-$117.1M	$33.8M	60.5%
FY 2023	2024-01-31	$226.5M	-$169.4M	$19.0M	59.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMBA)

✓Walkthrough of AMBA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AMBA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.13%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $61.36H $64.58L $58.32C $64.58VOL 3.27M

RES: $84.36SUP: $56.75SMA50: $66.75SMA200: $67.47

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMBA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMBA Butterfly Map → + Track AMBA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +37.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMBA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMBA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMBA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMBA)

Technology Rank #369 of 714 ⚔️ POWI vs AMBA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AMBA vs. POWI, UCTT, IPGP, OSIS)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) ranks #369 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #259 by equity capitalization ($2.85B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OSIS leads on earnings valuation at 21.9x trailing P/E, while OSIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and 34.3% gross margin. POWI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with AMBA at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AMBA ACTIVE Ambarella Inc.	D+	52/100	—	59.2%	-16.1%	-2.55%	$2.85B	Benchmark Subject
POWI Power Integrations Inc.	C	64/100	124.0x	54.5%	1.3%	-0.59%	$2.74B	/powi-vs-amba →
UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings Inc.	D-	43/100	—	15.7%	-9.8%	-2.11%	$2.62B	/uctt-vs-amba →
IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation	D-	36/100	103.5x	38.0%	0.6%	+0.23%	$3.22B	/ipgp-vs-amba →
OSIS OSI Systems Inc.	D+	55/100	21.9x	34.3%	11.4%	+3.74%	$3.27B	/osis-vs-amba →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001280263

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Ambarella Inc. (AMBA) reported GAAP revenue of $390.7M (+37.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $284.9M , and +72.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$75.9M, operating cash flow of $73.5M, and free cash flow of $73.5M (+117.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMBA closed FY2025 with $798.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.31, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-31	$390.7M	-$75.9M	$73.5M	$73.5M	$798.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-01-31	$284.9M	-$117.1M	$33.8M	$33.8M	$689.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-01-31	$226.5M	-$169.4M	$19.0M	$19.0M	—	—

3. AMBA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AMBA compare to POWI and UCTT in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMBA?

Where is AMBA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMBA last traded at $64.58 (-2.55% on volume of 1,029,790 shares), positioning the stock -3.25% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.75) and -4.28% below its 200-day simple moving average ($67.47). Across its 52-week range of $48.30 to $96.69, AMBA sits at the 33.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.8% ($56.96 to $72.20).