Stock Ratings / Materials / ALTO / insiders

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Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

Q: Is ALTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Alto Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $3.65 (-0.27% 1D, market cap $283.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ALTO ranks #184 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does ALTO compare to GEVO and OEC in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), ALTO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 3.8%, and ROIC of 2.0%. By comparison, GEVO (Gevo Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $299.2M) and OEC (Orion S.A.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.2%, cap $313.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALTO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OEC leads on capital efficiency (2.2% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALTO?

Per ALTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000778164), Alto Ingredients Inc. generated $917.9M in revenue (-4.9% YoY), $13.3K in net income, and $8.6M in free cash flow against $388.8M in total assets and $63.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is ALTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALTO last traded at $3.65 (-0.27% on volume of 668,864 shares), positioning the stock -4.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.83) and -14.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.28). Across its 52-week range of $0.99 to $6.11, ALTO sits at the 52.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($3.38 to $3.92).

Q: Are ALTO insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies ALTO leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

$3.65 -0.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.64

Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $283.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.64 (-0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALTO SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.9% FCF Margin ($8.6M FCF) & 3.8% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.98 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$3.73-7.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$3.45+4.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$3.61+1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.65-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALTO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALTO currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.83) and Max Pain ($3.83) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.42.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALTO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

ALTO Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (ALTO)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on ALTO. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALTO)

✓Walkthrough of ALTO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ALTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.88%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $3.60H $3.67L $3.58C $3.65VOL 625.9K

RES: $3.71SUP: $3.26SMA50: $3.83SMA200: $4.28

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALTO Butterfly Map → + Track ALTO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

27.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALTO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALTO)

Materials Rank #184 of 270 ⚔️ GEVO vs ALTO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ALTO vs. GEVO, OEC, FF, ASPI)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) ranks #184 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #203 by equity capitalization ($283.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALTO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while OEC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.2% ROIC and 19.9% gross margin. OEC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with ALTO at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALTO ACTIVE Alto Ingredients Inc.	D	48/100	—	3.8%	2.0%	-0.27%	$283.1M	Benchmark Subject
GEVO Gevo Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-2.9%	-0.82%	$299.2M	/gevo-vs-alto →
OEC Orion S.A.	D+	52/100	—	19.9%	2.2%	+1.28%	$313.1M	/oec-vs-alto →
FF FutureFuel Corp.	D-	35/100	—	-30.0%	-35.0%	-1.90%	$249.6M	/ff-vs-alto →
ASPI ASP Isotopes Inc.	D-	38/100	—	14.3%	-35.0%	+4.93%	$326.5M	/aspi-vs-alto →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000778164

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) reported GAAP revenue of $917.9M (-4.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $965.3M , and -24.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $13.3K, operating cash flow of $13.2M, and free cash flow of $8.6M (+159.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALTO closed FY2025 with $388.8M in total assets against $63.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.98, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$917.9M	$13.3K	$13.2M	$8.6M	$388.8M	$63.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$965.3M	-$59.0K	-$3.5M	-$14.6M	$401.4M	$92.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.22B	-$29.3M	$22.0M	$22.0M	—	—

3. ALTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Alto Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $3.65 (-0.27% 1D, market cap $283.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ALTO ranks #184 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALTO compare to GEVO and OEC in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), ALTO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 3.8%, and ROIC of 2.0%. By comparison, GEVO (Gevo Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $299.2M) and OEC (Orion S.A.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.2%, cap $313.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALTO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OEC leads on capital efficiency (2.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALTO?

Per ALTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000778164), Alto Ingredients Inc. generated $917.9M in revenue (-4.9% YoY), $13.3K in net income, and $8.6M in free cash flow against $388.8M in total assets and $63.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALTO last traded at $3.65 (-0.27% on volume of 668,864 shares), positioning the stock -4.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.83) and -14.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.28). Across its 52-week range of $0.99 to $6.11, ALTO sits at the 52.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($3.38 to $3.92).

ALTO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are ALTO insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies ALTO leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

Direct Sub-Reports: ALTO RQD Cockpit ALTO 12M Forecast ALTO Earnings & Move ALTO Dividends & DRIP ALTO Insiders & 13F ALTO Whale Options ALTO Profit Sankey ALTO News & Why