MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why ALRM Stock surged +2.50% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$66.54 +2.50% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $67.00
Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (66% profit margin, 65% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B • BUY
Cap $3.27B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $67.00 (+0.69%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 13.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALRM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALRM SCORES 73/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 13.6% FCF Margin ($137.0M FCF) & 66.1% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$55.65+3.1% Next Q
65
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$57.37+11.8% Next Q
68
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B$64.14+3.7% Next Q
70
CurrentGrade B$66.54+7.1% Hist 90D α
73
Trajectory: C+ (65) → B (73)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALRM Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 73/100 (B) score, ALRM faces multiple-compression risk if 24.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 63.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($57.01) or 200D SMA ($50.06) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($71.03) toward Bear Floor ($54.56).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALRM• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALRM Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ALRM Stock surged +2.50% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) surged +2.50% to $66.54, trading at 97% of its 52-week range ($41.49 – $67.41). High-quality cash engine (66% profit margin, 65% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 97% of its 52-week range ($41.49 – $67.41) with RSI-14 at 74.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.8% around $66.54 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B (Buy) backed by 66.1% gross margin and $137.0M annual free cash flow.
Live ALRM Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ALRM Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
ALRM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +49.83%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $67.22H $67.41L $64.50C $66.54VOL 721.5K
RES: $74.41SUP: $53.57SMA50: $57.01SMA200: $50.06
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ALRM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
18.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +7.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALRM today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALRM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALRM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALRM)
Technology Rank #64 of 714
⚔️ TDC vs ALRM Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (ALRM vs. TDC, SPSC, CLBT, INTA)
Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) ranks #64 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #246 by equity capitalization ($3.27B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALRM leads on earnings valuation at 24.8x trailing P/E, while TDC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.4% gross margin. SPSC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with ALRM at 73/100 (B).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM
ACTIVE
Alarm.com Holdings Inc. | B | 73/100 | 24.8x | 66.1% | 64.6% | +2.50% | $3.27B | Benchmark Subject |
| TDC Teradata Corporation | D+ | 57/100 | 24.8x | 59.4% | 85.0% | +0.76% | $3.22B | /tdc-vs-alrm → |
| SPSC SPS Commerce Inc. | B | 74/100 | 33.1x | 69.2% | 11.4% | +0.22% | $3.09B | /spsc-vs-alrm → |
| CLBT Cellebrite DI Ltd. | B | 73/100 | 39.4x | 84.2% | 14.6% | +3.02% | $3.09B | /clbt-vs-alrm → |
| INTA Intapp Inc. | D | 49/100 | — | 74.0% | -9.9% | -3.07% | $3.00B | /inta-vs-alrm → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001459200In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (ALRM) reported GAAP revenue of $1.01B (+7.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $939.8M , and +14.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $131.6M, operating cash flow of $153.3M, and free cash flow of $137.0M (-30.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALRM closed FY2025 with $2.14B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.94, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.01B | $131.6M | $153.3M | $137.0M | $2.14B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $939.8M | $122.5M | $206.4M | $196.3M | $2.04B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $881.7M | $80.3M | $136.0M | $136.0M | — | — |
3. ALRM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ALRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Alarm.com Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ALRM) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $66.54 (+2.50% 1D, market cap $3.27B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, ALRM ranks #64 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ALRM compare to TDC and SPSC in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), ALRM carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.8x, gross margin of 66.1%, and ROIC of 64.6%. By comparison, TDC (Teradata Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 24.8x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $3.22B) and SPSC (SPS Commerce Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 33.1x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $3.09B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALRM leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while TDC leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALRM?
Per ALRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001459200), Alarm.com Holdings Inc. generated $1.01B in revenue (+7.6% YoY), $131.6M in net income, and $137.0M in free cash flow against $2.14B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (66% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ALRM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ALRM last traded at $66.54 (+2.50% on volume of 545,393 shares), positioning the stock +16.72% above its 50-day simple moving average ($57.01) and +32.92% above its 200-day simple moving average ($50.06). Across its 52-week range of $41.49 to $67.41, ALRM sits at the 96.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 74.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($62.68 to $70.40).
ALRM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ALRM stock moving today?
Why ALRM Stock surged +2.50% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (66% profit margin, 65% return on capital) with steady institutional support.