Stock Ratings / Health Care / ALEC / options

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Alector Inc. (ALEC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$2.24 -0.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.23

Alector Inc. (ALEC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $332.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.23 (-0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALEC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (32/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALEC SCORES 32/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (47% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 69% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.08-11.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$1.84-0.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$1.83+22.4% Next Q

Current

Grade E$2.24-9.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (24) → E (32)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALEC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALEC currently carries a cautious 32/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.08) and Max Pain ($2.35) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.90.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALEC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALEC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 32%NO 68%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ALEC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ALEC.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALEC)

✓Walkthrough of ALEC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ALEC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.49%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $2.20H $2.25L $2.09C $2.24VOL 1.11M

RES: $2.79SUP: $1.74SMA50: $2.08SMA200: $2.03

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALEC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALEC Butterfly Map → + Track ALEC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALEC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALEC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALEC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALEC)

Health Care Rank #890 of 1016 ⚔️ XFOR vs ALEC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ALEC vs. XFOR, SCTX, IRLA, AGEN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alector Inc. (ALEC) ranks #890 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #508 by equity capitalization ($332.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALEC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ALEC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SCTX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with ALEC at 32/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALEC ACTIVE Alector Inc.	E	32/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.44%	$332.1M	Benchmark Subject
XFOR X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D-	35/100	—	83.6%	-35.0%	+0.30%	$333.1M	/xfor-vs-alec →
SCTX Scribe Therapeutics Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	—	-0.57%	$330.2M	/sctx-vs-alec →
IRLA IRulya Therapeutics Inc.	E	32/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.05%	$342.8M	/irla-vs-alec →
AGEN Agenus Inc.	E	26/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	-0.56%	$320.2M	/agen-vs-alec →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001653087

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alector Inc. (ALEC) reported GAAP revenue of $21.0M (-79.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $100.6M , and -78.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$143.0M, operating cash flow of -$184.0M, and free cash flow of -$184.1M (+20.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALEC closed FY2025 with $293.2M in total assets against $9.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$21.0M	-$143.0M	-$184.0M	-$184.1M	$293.2M	$9.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$100.6M	-$119.0M	-$229.9M	-$231.2M	$468.3M	$9.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$97.1M	-$130.0M	-$184.2M	-$184.2M	—	—

3. ALEC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Alector Inc. (NASDAQ: ALEC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $2.24 (-0.44% 1D, market cap $332.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ALEC ranks #890 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALEC compare to XFOR and SCTX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), ALEC carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, XFOR (X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $333.1M) and SCTX (Scribe Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $330.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALEC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ALEC leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALEC?

Per ALEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653087), Alector Inc. generated $21.0M in revenue (-79.1% YoY), -$143.0M in net income, and -$184.1M in free cash flow against $293.2M in total assets and $9.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALEC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALEC last traded at $2.24 (-0.44% on volume of 1,460,722 shares), positioning the stock +7.69% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.08) and +10.34% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.03). Across its 52-week range of $1.09 to $2.76, ALEC sits at the 68.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.96 to $2.52).