Stock Ratings / Health Care / AKBA / earnings

RNAC (31) PRQR (54) KRRO (44) NATR (68) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$0.71 -4.81% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.70

Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $205.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AKBA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AKBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: AKBA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $0.71 (-4.81% 1D, market cap $205.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AKBA ranks #211 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AKBA compare to RNAC and PRQR in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AKBA carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 83.3%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, RNAC (Cartesian Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $204.2M) and PRQR (ProQR Therapeutics N.V.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $203.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NATR leads on earnings multiple (11.1x) while AKBA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AKBA?

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Per AKBA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001517022), Akebia Therapeutics Inc. generated $236.2M in revenue (+47.5% YoY), -$5.3M in net income, and $67.7M in free cash flow against $376.6M in total assets and $48.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (83% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.70 (-1.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 28.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AKBA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AKBA SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 28.7% FCF Margin ($67.7M FCF) & 83.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.2) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$0.80-16.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$0.67-14.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$0.57+24.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$0.71-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AKBA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, AKBA faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($0.85) or 200D SMA ($1.15) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($0.71) toward Bear Floor ($0.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AKBA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AKBA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.09 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AKBA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 57/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 47.5%

Model Bullish Setup (57/100)Model Risk Weight (43/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$236.2M	-$5.3M	$67.7M	83.3%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$160.2M	-$69.4M	-$40.7M	60.6%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$194.6M	-$51.9M	-$23.4M	83.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AKBA)

✓Walkthrough of AKBA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AKBA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -48.55%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $0.72H $0.74L $0.69C $0.71VOL 2.77M

RES: $1.31SUP: $0.51SMA50: $0.85SMA200: $1.15

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AKBA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AKBA Butterfly Map → + Track AKBA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-12.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +47.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AKBA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AKBA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AKBA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AKBA)

Health Care Rank #211 of 1016 ⚔️ RNAC vs AKBA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AKBA vs. RNAC, PRQR, KRRO, NATR)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) ranks #211 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #573 by equity capitalization ($205.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NATR leads on earnings valuation at 11.1x trailing P/E, while AKBA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 83.3% gross margin. NATR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with AKBA at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AKBA ACTIVE Akebia Therapeutics Inc.	D+	57/100	—	83.3%	85.0%	-4.81%	$205.7M	Benchmark Subject
RNAC Cartesian Therapeutics Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.85%	$204.2M	/rnac-vs-akba →
PRQR ProQR Therapeutics N.V.	D+	54/100	—	—	—	-3.47%	$203.2M	/prqr-vs-akba →
KRRO Korro Bio Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.81%	$209.1M	/krro-vs-akba →
NATR Nature's Sunshine Products Inc.	C+	68/100	11.1x	72.4%	28.9%	-0.24%	$216.1M	/natr-vs-akba →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001517022

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) reported GAAP revenue of $236.2M (+47.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $160.2M , and +21.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$5.3M, operating cash flow of $68.0M, and free cash flow of $67.7M (+266.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, AKBA closed FY2025 with $376.6M in total assets against $48.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$236.2M	-$5.3M	$68.0M	$67.7M	$376.6M	$48.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$160.2M	-$69.4M	-$40.7M	-$40.7M	$220.7M	$38.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$194.6M	-$51.9M	-$23.4M	-$23.4M	—	—

3. AKBA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AKBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AKBA compare to RNAC and PRQR in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AKBA?

Where is AKBA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AKBA last traded at $0.71 (-4.81% on volume of 2,776,910 shares), positioning the stock -16.47% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.85) and -38.26% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.15). Across its 52-week range of $0.54 to $2.22, AKBA sits at the 10.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.80).

AKBA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AKBA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AKBA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for AKBA, spanning a range between $1 and $0.8.

Direct Sub-Reports: AKBA RQD Cockpit AKBA 12M Forecast AKBA Earnings & Move AKBA Dividends & DRIP AKBA Insiders & 13F AKBA Whale Options AKBA Profit Sankey AKBA News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AKBA — Akebia Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:41:03Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AKBA scores 57 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 15 out of 20 (ROIC 85%; FCF yield 0%), suggesting that the return on invested capital is strong on the rating's measure while free cash flow yield is zero. The whale/13F flow pillar scores 13 out of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning; the source does not itemize the underlying holdings. The insider conviction pillar scores 10 out of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). The macro regime fit pillar scores 9 out of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity). The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 10 out of 20 (Altman Z 0.2; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 1.48), the weakest pillar relative to its maximum, and the Altman Z-Score reading is the most significant distress signal in the source. For a prospective investor, the rating frames a profile with a high-return headline metric alongside weak balance sheet and macro-fit scores, with the verdict advising trimming. The rating is an analytical summary and not personalized advice.

Business

Akebia Therapeutics Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry, per the company profile. The profile identifies the company's market capitalization as $0.2B. The source data does not describe the company's products, customers, or revenue model beyond the reported financial lines and gross margin of 83.3%.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$236.2M	$23.5M	$-5.3M	N/A	$67.7M	$184.8M	$48.2M
FY 2024	$160.2M	$-50.5M	$-69.4M	N/A	$-40.7M	$51.9M	$38.7M
FY 2023	$194.6M	$-46.3M	$-51.9M	N/A	$-23.4M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, operating margin is 9.9% and net margin is -2.2%, with gross margin at 83.3%. ROIC is 85% per the market data, and the FCF yield is 0%. The Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7 out of 9, per the Roarable RQD rating. Debt/Equity is 1.48 per the same rating, and the source does not provide a further breakdown of balance sheet posture.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire lists six items, each tagged with a YELLOW light and a MARKET WIRE impact label: a TradingView estimates report, a StockInvest.us price forecast, a Yahoo! Finance Canada seasonal returns chart, a MarketBeat report stating an average target price of $3.90, a Stock Titan report on a compliance deadline after 30 business days below $1, and a Yahoo Finance notice that the company will report third quarter 2026 financial results and discuss recent business highlights. The compliance-deadline item is the most material risk watch item, since the share price of 0.71 sits below $1. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports supply chain as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What are the specific terms and timeline of the compliance deadline referenced in the news wire, and what is the company's plan to address it?
What drives the gap between the 85% ROIC and the 0% FCF yield, and how does FY 2025 free cash flow of $67.7M reconcile with the 0% yield?
What is the source for the MarketBeat average target price of $3.90, and how does it compare to the current price of 0.71?
Which products or revenue streams produced the FY 2025 revenue of $236.2M, and what is the company's pipeline?
What are the EPS figures, which the source reports as N/A for every period?

AKBA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AKBA Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 6h ago

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:AKBA

TradingView report covering Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 9h ago

Akebia Therapeutics Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy AKBA?

StockInvest.us report covering Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 12h ago

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 15h ago

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKBA) Stock Has Average Target Price of $3.90

MarketBeat report covering Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 18h ago

After 30 business days below $1, Akebia Therapeutics (Nasdaq: AKBA) gets a compliance deadline.

Stock Titan report covering Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Akebia Therapeutics to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Discuss Recent Business Highlights

Yahoo Finance report covering Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GlobeNewswire • 1d ago

Akebia Therapeutics to Conduct Investor Meetings at the Virtual U.S. Bancorp I BTIG Kidney Health Forum

GlobeNewswire report covering Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKBA) Stock Has Average Price Target of $3.90

MarketBeat report covering Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AKBA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.71?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AKBA 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $0.77 (+8.5%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AKBA (D+ • RQD 57/100) a Buy at $0.71?

Welcome to the AKBA (Akebia Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 57/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.55 (-22.5%)

Spot @ $0.71

Pump the brakes on AKBA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AKBA, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 83.3% gross margins. Unless Akebia Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.82 (+15.5%)

Spot @ $0.71

AKBA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AKBA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $0.71 (52-wk range $0.54 - $2.22), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.