MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why AGL Stock dropped -5.56% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$85.94 -5.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $84.92
agilon health inc. (AGL) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $1.44B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $84.92 (-1.19%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AGL SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (29% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 62% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (25% of score)
Altman Z-Score 2.06 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$82.39+3.3% Next Q
20
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$85.12+5.4% Next Q
23
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$89.71-4.2% Next Q
25
CurrentGrade E$85.94-10% Hist 90D α
28
Trajectory: E (20) → E (28)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGL Turnaround Squeeze
While AGL currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($87.87) and Max Pain ($90.24) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $139.69.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AGL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AGL Stock dropped -5.56% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
agilon health inc. (AGL) dropped -5.56% to $85.94, trading at 62% of its 52-week range ($7.48 – $133.04). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 62% of its 52-week range ($7.48 – $133.04) with RSI-14 at 44 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.3% around $85.94 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AGL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGL)
- ✓Walkthrough of AGL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AGL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +207.48%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $84.31H $85.94L $82.24C $85.94VOL 217.5K
RES: $91.36SUP: $60.25SMA50: $87.87SMA200: $64.99
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AGL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -2.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGL)
Health Care Rank #963 of 1016
⚔️ PGNY vs AGL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AGL vs. PGNY, SHC, VMD, DVA)
Industry: Misc Health and Biotechnology Services (10 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, agilon health inc. (AGL) ranks #963 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #310 by equity capitalization ($1.44B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DVA leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while DVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PGNY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with AGL at 28/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGL
ACTIVE
agilon health inc. | E | 28/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -5.56% | $1.44B | Benchmark Subject |
| PGNY Progyny Inc. | B+ | 77/100 | 37.2x | 23.6% | 16.7% | +1.90% | $2.18B | /pgny-vs-agl → |
| SHC Sotera Health Company | D+ | 53/100 | 68.5x | 55.5% | 3.1% | +0.27% | $5.34B | /shc-vs-agl → |
| VMD Viemed Healthcare Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 24.6x | 57.5% | 13.0% | -0.40% | $379.0M | /vmd-vs-agl → |
| DVA DaVita Inc. | B+ | 77/100 | 11.4x | — | 29.2% | +5.10% | $12.33B | /dva-vs-agl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001831097In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), agilon health inc. (AGL) reported GAAP revenue of $5.93B (-2.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.06B , and +37.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$391.3M, operating cash flow of -$105.8M, and free cash flow of -$119.0M (-67.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGL closed FY2025 with $1.27B in total assets against $15.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.06, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $5.93B | -$391.3M | -$105.8M | -$119.0M | $1.27B | $15.8M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $6.06B | -$260.2M | -$57.8M | -$71.0M | $1.73B | $34.9M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $4.32B | -$262.6M | -$156.2M | -$156.2M | — | — |
3. AGL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, agilon health inc. (NYSE: AGL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $85.94 (-5.56% 1D, market cap $1.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AGL ranks #963 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AGL compare to PGNY and SHC in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Misc Health and Biotechnology Services), AGL carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PGNY (Progyny Inc.) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 37.2x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $2.18B) and SHC (Sotera Health Company) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 68.5x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $5.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DVA leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while DVA leads on capital efficiency (29.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGL?
Per AGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831097), agilon health inc. generated $5.93B in revenue (-2.1% YoY), -$391.3M in net income, and -$119.0M in free cash flow against $1.27B in total assets and $15.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AGL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AGL last traded at $85.94 (-5.56% on volume of 138,614 shares), positioning the stock -2.20% below its 50-day simple moving average ($87.87) and +32.24% above its 200-day simple moving average ($64.99). Across its 52-week range of $7.48 to $133.04, AGL sits at the 62.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.3% ($76.23 to $95.65).
AGL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AGL stock moving today?
Why AGL Stock dropped -5.56% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.