Stock Ratings / Health Care / AGL / forecast

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agilon health inc. (AGL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$85.94 -5.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $84.92

agilon health inc. (AGL) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.44B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $84.92 (-1.19%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AGL SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 62% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.06 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$82.39+3.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$85.12+5.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$89.71-4.2% Next Q

Current

Grade E$85.94-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (20) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AGL currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($87.87) and Max Pain ($90.24) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $139.69.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AGL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AGL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $85.94: 116.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $57.99

$6,748

$-3,252 (-32.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $74.34

$8,650

$-1,350 (-13.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $139.69

$16,254

+$6,254 (+62.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$77	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$131	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$66	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGL)

✓Walkthrough of AGL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AGL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +207.48%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $84.31H $85.94L $82.24C $85.94VOL 217.5K

RES: $91.36SUP: $60.25SMA50: $87.87SMA200: $64.99

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AGL Butterfly Map → + Track AGL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGL)

Health Care Rank #963 of 1016 ⚔️ PGNY vs AGL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AGL vs. PGNY, SHC, VMD, DVA)

Industry: Misc Health and Biotechnology Services (10 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, agilon health inc. (AGL) ranks #963 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #310 by equity capitalization ($1.44B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DVA leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while DVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PGNY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with AGL at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AGL ACTIVE agilon health inc.	E	28/100	—	—	-35.0%	-5.56%	$1.44B	Benchmark Subject
PGNY Progyny Inc.	B+	77/100	37.2x	23.6%	16.7%	+1.90%	$2.18B	/pgny-vs-agl →
SHC Sotera Health Company	D+	53/100	68.5x	55.5%	3.1%	+0.27%	$5.34B	/shc-vs-agl →
VMD Viemed Healthcare Inc.	C+	69/100	24.6x	57.5%	13.0%	-0.40%	$379.0M	/vmd-vs-agl →
DVA DaVita Inc.	B+	77/100	11.4x	—	29.2%	+5.10%	$12.33B	/dva-vs-agl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001831097

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), agilon health inc. (AGL) reported GAAP revenue of $5.93B (-2.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.06B , and +37.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$391.3M, operating cash flow of -$105.8M, and free cash flow of -$119.0M (-67.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGL closed FY2025 with $1.27B in total assets against $15.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.06, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$5.93B	-$391.3M	-$105.8M	-$119.0M	$1.27B	$15.8M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$6.06B	-$260.2M	-$57.8M	-$71.0M	$1.73B	$34.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$4.32B	-$262.6M	-$156.2M	-$156.2M	—	—

3. AGL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, agilon health inc. (NYSE: AGL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $85.94 (-5.56% 1D, market cap $1.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AGL ranks #963 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGL compare to PGNY and SHC in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Misc Health and Biotechnology Services), AGL carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PGNY (Progyny Inc.) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 37.2x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $2.18B) and SHC (Sotera Health Company) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 68.5x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $5.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DVA leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while DVA leads on capital efficiency (29.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGL?

Per AGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831097), agilon health inc. generated $5.93B in revenue (-2.1% YoY), -$391.3M in net income, and -$119.0M in free cash flow against $1.27B in total assets and $15.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGL last traded at $85.94 (-5.56% on volume of 138,614 shares), positioning the stock -2.20% below its 50-day simple moving average ($87.87) and +32.24% above its 200-day simple moving average ($64.99). Across its 52-week range of $7.48 to $133.04, AGL sits at the 62.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.3% ($76.23 to $95.65).

AGL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AGL's 12-month stock price target?

agilon health inc. (AGL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $74.34 (-13.5% from $85.94), with a bull-case target of $139.69 and a bear-case floor of $57.99.