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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$9.26 -1.91% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.16B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AESI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AESI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.26: 1079.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $6.61

$7,138

$-2,862 (-28.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $8.47

$9,147

$-853 (-8.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $21.14

$22,829

+$12,829 (+128.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$9	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$20	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$8	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AESI)

✓Walkthrough of AESI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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AESI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -46.72%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $8.97H $9.26L $8.92C $9.26VOL 2.87M

RES: $12.16SUP: $8.33SMA50: $11.85SMA200: $13.43

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AESI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AESI Butterfly Map → + Track AESI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AESI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AESI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AESI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AESI)

Materials Rank #224 of 270 ⚔️ CMP vs AESI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (AESI vs. CMP, UUUU, LEU, GAU)

Industry: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) ranks #224 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #131 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LEU leads on earnings valuation at 28.0x trailing P/E, while LEU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 36.4% ROIC and 26.2% gross margin. LEU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with AESI at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AESI ACTIVE Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.	D-	39/100	—	13.8%	-0.5%	-1.91%	$1.16B	Benchmark Subject
CMP Compass Minerals Intl Inc	D+	53/100	—	15.3%	1.8%	0.00%	$962.6M	/cmp-vs-aesi →
UUUU Energy Fuels Inc (Canada)	E	23/100	—	20.9%	-13.0%	-1.91%	$2.06B	/uuuu-vs-aesi →
LEU Centrus Energy Corp. (Class A)	C-	59/100	28.0x	26.2%	36.4%	-1.27%	$2.18B	/leu-vs-aesi →
GAU Galiano Gold Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	—	-2.37%	$538.9M	/gau-vs-aesi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001984060

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.10B (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.06B , and +78.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$50.3M, operating cash flow of $117.3M, and free cash flow of -$30.9M (+73.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AESI closed FY2025 with $2.23B in total assets against $538.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.18, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.10B	-$50.3M	$117.3M	-$30.9M	$2.23B	$538.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.06B	$59.9M	$256.5M	-$117.5M	$1.97B	$467.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$614.0M	$105.4M	$299.0M	$299.0M	—	—

3. AESI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AESI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (NYSE: AESI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $9.26 (-1.91% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, AESI ranks #224 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AESI compare to CMP and UUUU in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)), AESI carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 13.8%, and ROIC of -0.5%. By comparison, CMP (Compass Minerals Intl Inc) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.8%, cap $962.6M) and UUUU (Energy Fuels Inc (Canada)) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.0%, cap $2.06B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LEU leads on earnings multiple (28.0x) while LEU leads on capital efficiency (36.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AESI?

Per AESI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001984060), Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. generated $1.10B in revenue (+3.7% YoY), -$50.3M in net income, and -$30.9M in free cash flow against $2.23B in total assets and $538.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AESI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AESI last traded at $9.26 (-1.91% on volume of 2,982,813 shares), positioning the stock -21.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.85) and -31.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.43). Across its 52-week range of $7.64 to $20.13, AESI sits at the 13.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.10 to $10.42).

AESI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AESI's 12-month stock price target?

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $8.47 (-8.5% from $9.26), with a bull-case target of $21.14 and a bear-case floor of $6.61.

Is AESI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AESI D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 39/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: AESI RQD Cockpit AESI 12M Forecast AESI Earnings & Move AESI Dividends & DRIP AESI Insiders & 13F AESI Whale Options AESI Profit Sankey AESI News & Why