RISK WATCHYahoo • 4d ago
Can Hims & Hers Stock Fall 30%?For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Why ADUS Stock advanced +1.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$124.34 +1.77% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $124.50
Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $2.32B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $124.50 (+0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 7.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADUS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ADUS SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 73.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 5.83 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$114.33+1.4% Next Q
61
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$115.98+5% Next Q
64
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$121.81+2.1% Next Q
66
CurrentGrade C+$124.34+2% Hist 90D α
69
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ADUS Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, ADUS faces multiple-compression risk if 24.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 30.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($117.00) or 200D SMA ($106.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($130.49) toward Bear Floor ($101.78).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADUS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ADUS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ADUS Stock advanced +1.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS) advanced +1.77% to $124.34, trading at 94% of its 52-week range ($87.95 – $126.62). Solid 33% profit margin (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 24x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 94% of its 52-week range ($87.95 – $126.62) with RSI-14 at 73.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5% around $124.34 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 32.5% gross margin and $103.8M annual free cash flow.
Live ADUS Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
Quest Diagnostics (DGX) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat EstimatesQuest Diagnostics (DGX) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +5.26% and +1.72%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
RISK WATCHYahoo • 13d ago
What Are Hims & Hers Health Stock Bears Missing?The June closing of the Eucalyptus acquisition transformed Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) into what the company now calls a global consumer health platform. Bears may be overlooking this shift. Investors probably still view t
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ADUS Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ADUS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.33%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $125.7H $126.6L $124.3C $124.3VOL 300.3K
RES: $141.6SUP: $111.1SMA50: $117.0SMA200: $106.4
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ADUS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
17.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +23.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADUS today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADUS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADUS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADUS)
Health Care Rank #101 of 1016
⚔️ WGS vs ADUS Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ADUS vs. WGS, PRVA, AVAH, TDOC)
Industry: Medical/Nursing Services (29 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS) ranks #101 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #234 by equity capitalization ($2.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADUS leads on earnings valuation at 24.2x trailing P/E, while AVAH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.7% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. ADUS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADUS
ACTIVE
Addus HomeCare Corporation | C+ | 69/100 | 24.2x | 32.5% | 9.1% | +1.77% | $2.32B | Benchmark Subject |
| WGS GeneDx Holdings Corp. (Class A) | D+ | 58/100 | — | 69.7% | -4.1% | +9.79% | $2.12B | /wgs-vs-adus → |
| PRVA Privia Health Group Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | 122.6x | — | 10.5% | +0.71% | $2.81B | /prva-vs-adus → |
| AVAH Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. | C | 65/100 | — | 33.3% | 15.7% | +1.53% | $2.89B | /avah-vs-adus → |
| TDOC Teladoc Health Inc. | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | -17.0% | +26.89% | $1.59B | /tdoc-vs-adus → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001468328In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.42B (+23.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.15B , and +34.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $95.9M, operating cash flow of $111.5M, and free cash flow of $103.8M (-6.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADUS closed FY2025 with $1.44B in total assets against $121.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.83, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.42B | $95.9M | $111.5M | $103.8M | $1.44B | $121.0M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.15B | $73.6M | $116.4M | $110.4M | $1.41B | $218.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.06B | $62.5M | $112.2M | $112.2M | — | — |
3. ADUS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ADUS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Addus HomeCare Corporation (NASDAQ: ADUS) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $124.34 (+1.77% 1D, market cap $2.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ADUS ranks #101 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ADUS compare to WGS and PRVA in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), ADUS carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.2x, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 9.1%. By comparison, WGS (GeneDx Holdings Corp. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.1%, cap $2.12B) and PRVA (Privia Health Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 122.6x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $2.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADUS leads on earnings multiple (24.2x) while AVAH leads on capital efficiency (15.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADUS?
Per ADUS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001468328), Addus HomeCare Corporation generated $1.42B in revenue (+23.2% YoY), $95.9M in net income, and $103.8M in free cash flow against $1.44B in total assets and $121.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ADUS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ADUS last traded at $124.34 (+1.77% on volume of 331,621 shares), positioning the stock +6.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($117.00) and +16.92% above its 200-day simple moving average ($106.35). Across its 52-week range of $87.95 to $126.62, ADUS sits at the 94.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($118.12 to $130.56).
ADUS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ADUS stock moving today?
Why ADUS Stock advanced +1.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 33% profit margin (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 24x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.