MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why ADAM Stock dropped -7.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$7.18 -7.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.07
Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $648.4M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.07 (-1.58%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADAM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ADAM SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$7.65-0.1% Next Q
65
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$7.64+2.2% Next Q
62
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$7.81-8.1% Next Q
60
CurrentGrade D+$7.18-0.2% Hist 90D α
57
Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ADAM Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, ADAM faces multiple-compression risk if 4.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($8.46) or 200D SMA ($8.55) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($7.15) toward Bear Floor ($5.58).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADAM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ADAM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ADAM Stock dropped -7.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) dropped -7.71% to $7.18, trading at 17% of its 52-week range ($6.54 – $10.36). Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 17% of its 52-week range ($6.54 – $10.36) with RSI-14 at 23.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.5% around $7.18 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $125.9M annual free cash flow.
Live ADAM Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ADAM)
- ✓Walkthrough of ADAM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ADAM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.04%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $7.18H $7.18L $6.54C $7.18VOL 1.76M
RES: $11.53SUP: $7.02SMA50: $8.46SMA200: $8.55
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ADAM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADAM today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADAM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADAM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADAM)
Financials Rank #644 of 1096
⚔️ PMT vs ADAM Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ADAM vs. PMT, PSTL, MFA, CLDT)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) ranks #644 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #648 by equity capitalization ($648.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFA leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while MFA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.7% ROIC and — gross margin. PSTL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with ADAM at 57/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADAM
ACTIVE
Adamas Trust Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | 4.4x | — | 8.9% | -7.71% | $648.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of | D- | 42/100 | 7.5x | — | 4.6% | +1.51% | $643.6M | /pmt-vs-adam → |
| PSTL Postal Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) | C | 65/100 | 46.4x | — | 9.6% | +1.93% | $656.4M | /pstl-vs-adam → |
| MFA MFA Financial Inc. | C | 62/100 | 3.9x | — | 9.7% | +0.15% | $687.4M | /mfa-vs-adam → |
| CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust of | C | 62/100 | 46.3x | — | 4.5% | +0.60% | $697.6M | /cldt-vs-adam → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001273685In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $149.0M, operating cash flow of $134.0M, and free cash flow of $125.9M (+1290.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADAM closed FY2025 with $12.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $149.0M | $134.0M | $125.9M | $12.64B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | -$62.0M | $14.1M | -$10.6M | $9.22B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$48.7M | $30.0M | $30.0M | — | — |
3. ADAM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ADAM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Adamas Trust Inc. (NASDAQ: ADAM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $7.18 (-7.71% 1D, market cap $648.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ADAM ranks #644 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ADAM compare to PMT and PSTL in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ADAM carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, PMT (PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E 7.5x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $643.6M) and PSTL (Postal Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 46.4x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $656.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFA leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while MFA leads on capital efficiency (9.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADAM?
Per ADAM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001273685), Adamas Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $149.0M in net income, and $125.9M in free cash flow against $12.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ADAM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ADAM last traded at $7.18 (-7.71% on volume of 2,580,750 shares), positioning the stock -15.13% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.46) and -16.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.55). Across its 52-week range of $6.54 to $10.36, ADAM sits at the 16.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 23.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($6.64 to $7.72).
ADAM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ADAM stock moving today?
Why ADAM Stock dropped -7.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.