Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Whale Options Tug-of-War, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$103.94 +1.41% NASDAQ β€’ Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The underlying business is intact, so current owners don’t need to panic-sellβ€”but mixed big-money flow or rich pricing means new buyers can afford to wait for either a pullback or a B-or-higher upgrade.

ROARABLE C+ β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $35.47B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C+
025507510068
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- Β· Rk B+
Cash (14)Whales (10)SEC (16)Macro (16)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$128 Bull$109 Base$85 Bear
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WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:56% Call Buyers ($3.6M)
44% PutsMax Pain: $102.00
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
56% Calls / 44% Puts
Put/Call Ratio: 0.78x
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
$102.00
-1.87% vs. current $103.94 spot
OPTIONS-IMPLIED VOLATILITY MOVE
Β±7.1%
Expected event band around $103.94

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ACGL)

$95
6,313C / 11,538P
$100
6,313C / 11,538P
$105
14,764C / 11,538P
$110
14,764C / 4,987P
$115
14,764C / 4,987P
ACTIVE TRADER & PROP FUNDING DESK

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Trading ACGL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

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RQD INSIDER CLUB UPGRADE$49/YEAR
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ACGL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.60%β–² RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $105.5H $106.7L $105.1C $106.4VOL 2.48M
RES: $104.6SUP: $90.01SMA50: $97.94SMA200: $96.80
$108.5$102.7$96.87$91.06$85.25RES $104.6SUP $90.01$106.42026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACGL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-5.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACGL today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACGL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACGL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’

ACGL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is ACGL's options max pain and whale flow sentiment?

Unusual options sweeps in ACGL show 56% bullish call premium versus 44% put premium, centered near a $102 max-pain strike.