Nelnet Inc. (NNI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$124.27 +1.47% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $124.36

Nelnet Inc. (NNI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.38B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NNI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NNI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Nelnet Inc. (NYSE: NNI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $124.27 (+1.47% 1D, market cap $4.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NNI ranks #567 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NNI compare to ENVA and CORZ in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), NNI carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, ENVA (Enova International Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 14.4x, ROIC 17.1%, cap $4.26B) and CORZ (Core Scientific Inc.) posts a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NNI leads on earnings multiple (10.3x) while SEZL leads on capital efficiency (38.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NNI?
▼

Per NNI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001258602), Nelnet Inc. generated $5.91B in revenue (+2.1% YoY), $428.5M in net income, and $396.7M in free cash flow against $14.06B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $124.36 (+0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 6.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (9)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target
$152 Bull$121 Base$95 Bear
📬 FREE NNI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NNI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NNI SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$126.93-0.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$126.38-2.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$122.75+1.2% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$124.27-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NNI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NNI currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($125.42) and Max Pain ($130.48) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $151.60.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NNI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NNI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
42.230 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE28% OF RANGE
L: $117$124.27H: $144
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on NNI

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (50)

11.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 8.98% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (50)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NNI
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NNI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NNI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
NNI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.86%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $123.5H $124.3L $122.5C $124.3VOL 120.6K
RES: $128.6SUP: $119.9SMA50: $125.4SMA200: $130.1
$145.1$137.4$129.7$121.9$114.2RES $128.6SUP $119.9$124.32026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NNI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-0.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NNI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NNI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NNI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NNI)

Financials Rank #567 of 1096 ⚔️ ENVA vs NNI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NNI vs. ENVA, CORZ, SEZL, CACC)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nelnet Inc. (NNI) ranks #567 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #295 by equity capitalization ($4.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NNI leads on earnings valuation at 10.3x trailing P/E, while SEZL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.6% ROIC and — gross margin. SEZL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with NNI at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NNI ACTIVE
Nelnet Inc.
D+ 53/100 10.3x — 11.6% +1.47% $4.38B Benchmark Subject
ENVA
Enova International Inc.
C- 61/100 14.4x — 17.1% -0.09% $4.26B /enva-vs-nni →
CORZ
Core Scientific Inc.
E 25/100 — — -35.0% -5.62% $4.26B /corz-vs-nni →
SEZL
Sezzle Inc.
B+ 79/100 — — 38.6% -4.84% $4.56B /sezl-vs-nni →
CACC
Credit Acceptance Corporation
D 50/100 — — 0.0% +4.27% $4.71B /cacc-vs-nni →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001258602

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nelnet Inc. (NNI) reported GAAP revenue of $5.91B (+2.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.79B , and +259.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $428.5M, operating cash flow of $423.0M, and free cash flow of $396.7M (-38.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, NNI closed FY2025 with $14.06B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.91B $428.5M $423.0M $396.7M $14.06B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.79B $184.0M $662.9M $642.0M $13.78B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.64B $89.8M $432.0M $432.0M — —

3. NNI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NNI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Nelnet Inc. (NYSE: NNI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $124.27 (+1.47% 1D, market cap $4.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NNI ranks #567 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NNI compare to ENVA and CORZ in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), NNI carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, ENVA (Enova International Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 14.4x, ROIC 17.1%, cap $4.26B) and CORZ (Core Scientific Inc.) posts a E grade (25/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NNI leads on earnings multiple (10.3x) while SEZL leads on capital efficiency (38.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NNI?

Per NNI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001258602), Nelnet Inc. generated $5.91B in revenue (+2.1% YoY), $428.5M in net income, and $396.7M in free cash flow against $14.06B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NNI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NNI last traded at $124.27 (+1.47% on volume of 150,771 shares), positioning the stock -0.92% below its 50-day simple moving average ($125.42) and -4.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($130.13). Across its 52-week range of $116.62 to $144.38, NNI sits at the 27.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($119.30 to $129.24).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NNI — Nelnet Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:21:38Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

NNI scores 55 out of 100, a letter grade of D+ and a verdict label of "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 11.6% and an FCF yield of 8.98%. Per the market data, these same figures appear as the stock's ROIC and FCF yield. For a prospective investor, the cash-generation case is a meaningful source of support, but it is scored only half-strong.
  • Whale / 13F Flow: 7 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The holders section contains no data, so the underlying evidence for this score is not visible in the source data. A low score here signals weak institutional momentum as scored by the framework.
  • Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the strongest pillar in the rating, though the individual transactions behind it are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 9 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and the score reflects sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is scored as moving in line with the broader market, and the low pillar score indicates the framework views its macro fit as unfavorable.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These are mid-range readings: the Z-Score and leverage are not alarming, but the Piotroski score is weak.

Valuation tradeoffs. Per the market data, the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 10.3 and a forward P/E of 9.6. The forward figure sitting below the trailing figure implies the source data expects earnings to rise, though the source does not explain the driver. A prospective investor should weigh that low multiple against the rating's weak composite score.

Upside drivers and risks. The main upside drivers visible in the source data are the cash-generation metrics and insider flow. The main drags are the weak institutional-flow score, the weak macro-fit score, and the weak Piotroski reading. The rating's verdict is to trim rather than accumulate.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Nelnet Inc. (NNI) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Finance: Consumer Services industry,. Market capitalization is $4.4B. The sector and industry classification is the only business characterization available in the source data.

Net income rose from $89.8M in FY 2023 to $184.0M in FY 2024 and $428.5M in FY 2025, while FCF moved from $432.0M to $642.0M and then $396.7M. Revenue, operating income, and EPS are reported as zero or N/A in the source data, so margin trends cannot be calculated from it. The market data lists gross, operating, and net margins each as 0%, which the source does not explain. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and the balance sheet shows Debt/Equity of 0.5. Debt values are N/A in the source data, so the leverage picture rests on the ratio alone.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Trading at a 10.3 trailing P/E and 9.6 forward P/E with an 8.98% FCF yield and 11.6% ROIC, while insider flow scores 16 / 20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 (ROIC 11.6%, FCF yield 8.98%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $116.62 – $144.38 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: The composite RQD score of 55 (D+, Trim) is weighed down by a 7 / 20 institutional-flow pillar and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9. Investors must weigh 10.3x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Finance: Consumer Services (Financials), NNI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: What are the company's revenue and operating income figures, given that the financials report them as zero?
  • Key Question #2: What is the new price target set by TD Cowen, and what analyst consensus exists?
  • Key Question #3: What are the debt balances behind the Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5, given that debt is reported as N/A?

NNI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nelnet Inc. (NNI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NNI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NNI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $124.27?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NNI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NNI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $144.51 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trading at a 10.3 trailing P/E and 9.6 forward P/E with an 8.98% FCF yield and 11.6% ROIC, while insider flow scores 16 / 20.

Here is why I am bullish on NNI here at $122.47: Trading at a 10.3 trailing P/E and 9.6 forward P/E with an 8.98% FCF yield and 11.6% ROIC, while insider flow scores 16 / 20.. Compare NNI's 0.0% operating margin and 11.6% ROIC against the rest of Finance: Consumer Services. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $116.35 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 53/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $122.47 and keeping dry powder in case we test $113.90.

BE BearTrap_Alert Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $93.08 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $122.47

The composite RQD score of 55 (D+, Trim) is weighed down by a 7 / 20 institutional-flow pillar and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short NNI above $122.47. The composite RQD score of 55 (D+, Trim) is weighed down by a 7 / 20 institutional-flow pillar and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (8.98%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $144.38.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%