Mount Logan Capital Inc. (MLCI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.40 +2.72% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.41

Mount Logan Capital Inc. (MLCI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $37.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MLCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Mount Logan Capital Inc. (NASDAQ: MLCI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $3.40 (+2.72% 1D, market cap $37.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MLCI ranks #1008 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MLCI compare to GROW and RSF in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), MLCI carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GROW (U.S. Global Investors Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.5%, cap $33.0M) and RSF (RiverNorth Capital and Income Fund) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $47.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HNNA leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while HNNA leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MLCI?
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Per MLCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002051820), Mount Logan Capital Inc. generated $53.6M in revenue (+7.6% YoY), -$60.8M in net income, and -$22.2M in free cash flow against $1.60B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.41 (+0.30%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510033
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (7)Whales (6)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target
$9 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE MLCI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MLCI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MLCI SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
25
Grade E$3.03+2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
28
Grade E$3.11+1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$3.17+7.3% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$3.40-8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (25) → E (33)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MLCI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MLCI currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.24) and Max Pain ($3.57) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.11.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MLCI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MLCI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
53.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE14% OF RANGE
L: $3$3.40H: $9
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 11 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MLCI

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (35)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (30)

11/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MLCI
  • ✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MLCI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MLCI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MLCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.37%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $3.27H $3.40L $3.27C $3.40VOL 15.8K
RES: $3.68SUP: $3.11SMA50: $3.24SMA200: $4.03
$6.52$5.45$4.37$3.30$2.23RES $3.68SUP $3.11$3.402026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MLCI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MLCI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MLCI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MLCI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MLCI)

Financials Rank #1008 of 1096 ⚔️ GROW vs MLCI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MLCI vs. GROW, RSF, HNNA, DTF)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mount Logan Capital Inc. (MLCI) ranks #1008 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #1028 by equity capitalization ($37.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HNNA leads on earnings valuation at 8.1x trailing P/E, while HNNA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.5% ROIC and — gross margin. HNNA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with MLCI at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MLCI ACTIVE
Mount Logan Capital Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% +2.72% $37.0M Benchmark Subject
GROW
U.S. Global Investors Inc. (Class A)
E 24/100 — — -12.5% -2.80% $33.0M /grow-vs-mlci →
RSF
RiverNorth Capital and Income Fund
D 47/100 — — — -0.07% $47.5M /rsf-vs-mlci →
HNNA
Hennessy Advisors Inc.
B+ 77/100 8.1x — 38.5% +0.59% $80.5M /hnna-vs-mlci →
DTF
DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — — -0.35% $80.6M /dtf-vs-mlci →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002051820

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mount Logan Capital Inc. (MLCI) reported GAAP revenue of $53.6M (+7.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $49.8M ) , GAAP net income of -$60.8M, operating cash flow of -$22.2M, and free cash flow of -$22.2M (+41.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, MLCI closed FY2025 with $1.60B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $53.6M -$60.8M -$22.2M -$22.2M $1.60B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $49.8M -$10.4M -$37.8M -$37.8M $1.56B —

3. MLCI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MLCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Mount Logan Capital Inc. (NASDAQ: MLCI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $3.40 (+2.72% 1D, market cap $37.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MLCI ranks #1008 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MLCI compare to GROW and RSF in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), MLCI carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GROW (U.S. Global Investors Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.5%, cap $33.0M) and RSF (RiverNorth Capital and Income Fund) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $47.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HNNA leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while HNNA leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MLCI?

Per MLCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002051820), Mount Logan Capital Inc. generated $53.6M in revenue (+7.6% YoY), -$60.8M in net income, and -$22.2M in free cash flow against $1.60B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MLCI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MLCI last traded at $3.40 (+2.72% on volume of 4,926 shares), positioning the stock +4.94% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.24) and -15.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.03). Across its 52-week range of $2.56 to $8.68, MLCI sits at the 13.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($3.18 to $3.62).

MLCI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MLCI stock right now?

Mount Logan Capital Inc. (MLCI) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 33/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MLCI's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MLCI's 12-month base price target is $3.02 (range $2.36 to $9.11), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MLCI — Mount Logan Capital Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:48:04Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MLCI scores 33 out of 100, a letter grade of E, with the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 (ROIC of -35%; FCF yield of 0%); Whale 13F Flow at 6/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 5/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 7/20 (beta of 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8/20 (Altman Z-Score of 2.5; Piotroski F-Score of 2/9; Debt/Equity of 0.5). Every pillar scores in the lower portion of its range, meaning weakness is broad rather than confined to one area. The cash-generation pillar and the insider-flow pillar are the weakest signals in the rating, while the balance-sheet pillar, though still low, is the least negative. For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to an unprofitable business with negative return on capital and no free-cash yield, supported by only modest institutional and insider conviction. The rating does not establish a price target or a timing signal.

Business

Per the company profile, Mount Logan Capital Inc. (MLCI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Investment Managers industry. The source data does not describe its specific products, client base, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 revenue was $53.6M, indicating an operating business with meaningful top-line scale relative to its market capitalization. Per the market data, gross and operating margins are both 0%, and net margin is -60%.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$53.6M$0.0M$-60.8MN/A$-22.2MN/AN/A
FY 2024$49.8M$0.0M$-10.4MN/A$-37.8MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $49.8M in FY 2024 to $53.6M in FY 2025, while net loss widened from $-10.4M to $-60.8M. Free cash flow was negative in both periods. Per the market data, ROIC is -35% and FCF yield is 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash and debt balances are not reported in the source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items are tagged to MLCI. Four are generic market-wire summaries from aggregators (Yahoo! Finance Canada, Yahoo Finance UK, TradingView, and a second TradingView item) carrying a YELLOW light, indicating neutral informational content. Two items carry a GREEN light and CATALYST impact label: an Investing.com report titled "BC Partners to buy up to $1.5M in Mount Logan stock" and a GlobeNewswire report titled "BC Partners to Increase Ownership Stake in Mount Logan Capital Inc." Both describe a shareholder, BC Partners, increasing its position. The most material item for the thesis is this ownership increase, as it is the only positive catalyst flagged. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are recorded. Risk watch items include the widening FY 2025 net loss and negative free cash flow in both reported periods.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's cash, debt, and EPS figures, since these are marked N/A in the SEC financials?
  • What drove the widening FY 2025 net loss to $-60.8M from $-10.4M, and is it recurring or one-time?
  • What is the size and terms of BC Partners' ownership increase, and does it reflect a control or strategic change?
  • What is the source of the 4.37% dividend yield given negative net income and zero FCF yield?
  • What specific products, clients, and revenue streams generate the $53.6M in FY 2025 revenue?

MLCI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mount Logan Capital Inc. (MLCI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MLCI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MLCI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.40?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MLCI 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MLCI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.91 (-12.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MLCI (E • RQD 33/100) a Buy at $3.31?

Welcome to the MLCI (Mount Logan Capital Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 33/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Investment Managers. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.78 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $3.31

Pump the brakes on MLCI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MLCI, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Mount Logan Capital Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.94 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $3.31

MLCI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MLCI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Investment Managers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $3.31 (52-wk range $2.56 - $8.68), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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