PINE (47) BRT (37) KREF (42) LAND (43) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$15.31 -0.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.26

NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $288.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NREF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NREF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NYSE: NREF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $15.31 (-0.65% 1D, market cap $288.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NREF ranks #719 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NREF compare to PINE and BRT in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), NREF carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, PINE (Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.8%, cap $296.9M) and BRT (BRT Apartments Corp. (MD)) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.5%, cap $249.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LAND leads on earnings multiple (24.9x) while PINE leads on capital efficiency (3.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NREF?

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Per NREF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001786248), NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $22.9M in free cash flow against $5.32B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.26 (-0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NREF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NREF SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.6% FCF Margin ($22.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$15.43-1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$15.15+1.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$15.40-0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$15.31-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NREF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NREF currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.14) and Max Pain ($16.08) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.35.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NREF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NREF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

45.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE46% OF RANGE

L: $13$15.31H: $18

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on NREF

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

14.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.94% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (45)

19/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NREF

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NREF)

✓Walkthrough of NREF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NREF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.10%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $15.41H $15.41L $15.31C $15.31VOL 72.9K

RES: $20.14SUP: $14.45SMA50: $16.14SMA200: $15.40

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NREF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NREF Butterfly Map → + Track NREF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NREF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NREF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NREF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NREF)

Financials Rank #719 of 1096 ⚔️ PINE vs NREF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NREF vs. PINE, BRT, KREF, LAND)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) ranks #719 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #819 by equity capitalization ($288.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LAND leads on earnings valuation at 24.9x trailing P/E, while PINE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.8% ROIC and — gross margin. NREF currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NREF ACTIVE NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc.	D	48/100	—	—	—	-0.65%	$288.6M	Benchmark Subject
PINE Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	3.8%	+2.16%	$296.9M	/pine-vs-nref →
BRT BRT Apartments Corp. (MD)	D-	37/100	—	—	-6.5%	+2.31%	$249.6M	/brt-vs-nref →
KREF KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	-4.0%	+3.55%	$334.1M	/kref-vs-nref →
LAND Gladstone Land Corporation	D-	43/100	24.9x	—	2.0%	-6.80%	$336.9M	/land-vs-nref →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001786248

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $22.9M, and free cash flow of $22.9M (-21.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, NREF closed FY2025 with $5.32B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	$22.9M	$22.9M	$5.32B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$0	$29.3M	$29.3M	$5.42B	—

3. NREF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NREF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NREF compare to PINE and BRT in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NREF?

Where is NREF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NREF last traded at $15.31 (-0.65% on volume of 72,894 shares), positioning the stock -5.14% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.14) and -0.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.40). Across its 52-week range of $12.60 to $18.43, NREF sits at the 46.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($14.41 to $16.21).

NREF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell NREF stock right now?

NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 48/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is NREF's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NREF's 12-month base price target is $14.62 (range $11.4 to $19.35), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: NREF RQD Cockpit NREF 12M Forecast NREF Earnings & Move NREF Dividends & DRIP NREF Insiders & 13F NREF Whale Options NREF Profit Sankey NREF News & Why