Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HYFM

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Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (HYFM) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$0.78 -5.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.77

Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (HYFM) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.77 (-1.17%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HYFM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HYFM SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$0.84-7.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$0.78+2.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$0.80-2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$0.78-8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HYFM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HYFM currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.90) and Max Pain ($0.82) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.36.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HYFM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HYFM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

37.730 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

1 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE10% OF RANGE

L: $1$0.78H: $3

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 14 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on HYFM

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (35)

-35.0% ROIC with 11.3% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 1/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (37)

14/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HYFM

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HYFM)

✓Walkthrough of HYFM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HYFM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.77%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $0.75H $0.79L $0.70C $0.78VOL 100.7K

RES: $1.01SUP: $0.65SMA50: $0.90SMA200: $1.06

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HYFM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HYFM Butterfly Map → + Track HYFM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -29.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HYFM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HYFM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HYFM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HYFM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #882 of 1011 ⚔️ NHTC vs HYFM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HYFM vs. NHTC, EDUC, BRLT, ELA)

Industry: Consumer Specialties (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (HYFM) ranks #882 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #978 by equity capitalization ($3.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EDUC leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while ELA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.7% ROIC and 22.4% gross margin. ELA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with HYFM at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HYFM ACTIVE Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc.	D-	37/100	—	11.3%	-35.0%	-5.45%	$3.8M	Benchmark Subject
NHTC Natural Health Trends Corp.	E	27/100	—	73.5%	-8.6%	-8.01%	$6.6M	/nhtc-vs-hyfm →
EDUC Educational Development Corporation	C-	61/100	3.8x	59.4%	5.1%	+0.97%	$8.9M	/educ-vs-hyfm →
BRLT Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A)	D	47/100	—	57.5%	-35.0%	+2.58%	$161.9M	/brlt-vs-hyfm →
ELA Envela Corporation	B-	70/100	20.2x	22.4%	20.7%	+2.15%	$295.5M	/ela-vs-hyfm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001695295

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (HYFM) reported GAAP revenue of $134.3M (-29.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $190.3M , and -40.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$289.8M, operating cash flow of -$14.1M, and free cash flow of -$15.1M (-369.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HYFM closed FY2025 with $123.8M in total assets against $50.0K in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$134.3M	-$289.8M	-$14.1M	-$15.1M	$123.8M	$50.0K
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$190.3M	-$66.7M	-$324.0K	-$3.2M	$426.1M	$114.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$226.6M	-$64.8M	$7.0M	$7.0M	—	—

3. HYFM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HYFM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (NASDAQ: HYFM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $0.78 (-5.45% 1D, market cap $3.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HYFM ranks #882 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HYFM compare to NHTC and EDUC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), HYFM carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 11.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NHTC (Natural Health Trends Corp.) holds a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.6%, cap $6.6M) and EDUC (Educational Development Corporation) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $8.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EDUC leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HYFM?

Per HYFM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001695295), Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. generated $134.3M in revenue (-29.4% YoY), -$289.8M in net income, and -$15.1M in free cash flow against $123.8M in total assets and $50.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HYFM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HYFM last traded at $0.78 (-5.45% on volume of 215,990 shares), positioning the stock -13.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.90) and -26.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.06). Across its 52-week range of $0.50 to $3.20, HYFM sits at the 10.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.88).

HYFM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell HYFM stock right now?

Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (HYFM) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 37/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is HYFM's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

HYFM's 12-month base price target is $0.71 (range $0.55 to $3.36), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: HYFM RQD Cockpit HYFM 12M Forecast HYFM Earnings & Move HYFM Dividends & DRIP HYFM Insiders & 13F HYFM Whale Options HYFM Profit Sankey HYFM News & Why